So Orange Mountain Capital wants to take on Fanatics huh? But Fanatics still holds exclusive licensing for most of the pro sports. I think the big winner here is Gray, who knew when to pack up his sticker roll and take the money.

I guess any deals with Ari Lehman died with Brian Gray.

And I still say some of those Eastwoods are suspect.

Interesting, makes sense.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Gray definitely innovated in the hobby and produced some of my favorite sets.

I haven't heard anything on the Lehman thing in a while I already assumed that was basically dead.

I could be wrong, because I'm just going by what I can glean from eBay's auctions, BINs and sold listings, but Pop's Decadence looks like a disaster for sellers.

All those signed Rappers are just sitting there, which kind of makes sense because do we really think Rap and trading cards is a natural combo? Probably not.

The BINs remain high, but the sold auctions are under $100 for most completions. An Emilia Clark went for $202 the other day. Not for nothing, but a Clarke pull should be in the upper tier for these boxes.

These autograph cards have to sell for around $333 each to get that box price back, or one card has to pick up the slack for whatever shortfall comes from the others. If you go in for a case to catch big cards, your investment is an enormous hole to climb out of.

I'm doing the math and I don't see how any average buyer with an average box break isn't going to drop a bundle counting on the resale for profit, or just trying to break even. I think Leaf has turned over (pun intended) Pop Century on a sour note.

In the cards that I have watched I have noticed that the decadence autographs are selling for the same as or less than the same pop century autograph.

I guess it shouldn't be a surprise since it is nearly the same release just put out a couple of months later.

Also well I generally do like the decadence design and photos better I don't actually like the cards. I'm not a fan of them being sealed in a one touch and I also don't like the strange metal border around the edge of the card. In general I just don't really like them.

I purchased three autographs from the same musician. The decadence autograph was Cheaper than the two pop century autographs.

I can't see how any sellers are doing well with this release.

I have purchased three Decadence autographs to date, all well-known actors. Two I would have considered big hits if I pulled them and the third a good Scifi genre name. I paid $65 & $75 for the big ones and $30 for the niche star.

Now I'm really happy adding these autograph cards that I wanted at less than 20% of the box cost, but in terms of the market, I don't know what gives. There is a serious schism going on here between what we are told is the value, what past history has recorded as value, and what the current demand is actually paying.

Could the non-sport certified card market have already crashed, and we just haven't been informed yet?

I'll chime in Pop Century. For me personally, I prefer the cards on regular card stock, not this fancy chrome/prism look or whatever you call it. I like simple and well designed cards with nicely placed autographs.

Even though I can grab a Kristen Bell auto for $50-$70 versus the Veronica Mars auto's, the look of the cards have kept me from adding another Bell auto to my collection. I do have a few of these new Pop Century auto's in my collection, but only because it is the only way for me to add an auto of the actor to it.

Hopefully the new management at Leaf will take Pop Century back to a simpler time. I would be acquiring quite a few more auto's than I am now.

I find some of the decadence designs more pleasing to look at than pop century. I think a card with ECLAT across it is dumb but even some of those look nice. I decided to pick up another Ray Liotta just because the card looked so much nicer than the one from last year.

Still interesting to look across both sets and find full sigs when many from the same celebrity are abbreviated. Just saw a Pete Davidson that isn't PD. Also like looking at the variations in Marisa Tomei's signature. I think my custom cards I made for her to sign last year look much cooler than anything leaf produces.

I think this is just more proof that for this type of set the price per box has basically no bearing on the price of the autographs inside it. . .

The pricing in general on the Pop Century and Decadence autographs is generally in line to higher than I expected. I don't feel like I'm seeing a lot of bargains with the autographs I've chased.

I do feel like certain cards that were massively hyped during covid have returned to pre-pandemic levels. A lot of Marvel cards that were hyped have returned to earth -- although some remain really high -- for now.

quote:

Originally posted by webjon:

the price per box has basically no bearing on the price of the autographs inside it. . .

Find me a box that does unless you are very lucky.

quote:

Originally posted by wolfie:

quote:

Originally posted by webjon:

the price per box has basically no bearing on the price of the autographs inside it. . .

Find me a box that does unless you are very lucky.

True dat!

I think by now we all have had ample PROOF that more expensive product doesn't translate into more valuable cards without other differing factors besides just the cost of the box.

while this is pretty clearly true for entertainment cards, it must not be true for sports cards otherwise why would they continuously try it.

quote:

Originally posted by webjon:
while this is pretty clearly true for entertainment cards, it must not be true for sports cards otherwise why would they continuously try it.

I dunno, I see all these sports gambling commercials....you know they can't be winning unless a bunch of customers are losing. The lottery doesn't survive with most people coming out on top.

The answer is not complicated when you consider the difference between the demand for a sports star and a non-sports star.

First of all, sports cards are a bigger market with more participants, so right there demand will be higher.

As far as focus goes, the big hits in sports cards will be the certified autograph cards, same as with non-sport products. But the difference is that the best signers are much easier to predict and are much more universally acknowledged within that specific sport.

By that I mean, you know who the big stars are in baseball, football, basketball and hockey, and you know who the hot rookies are for that season. Everybody with a card interest in that sport is willing to pay a lot for those same people.

This just isn't true with non-sport entertainment cards. Demand is much more fractured because it's not just 4 sports, its hundreds of titles and thousands of celebrities that card collectors may or may not have any interest in. So sure, you know the big names in actors for example, but that doesn't mean you'd like to have that autograph card, or that you'd pay a ridiculous sum to own it. That doesn't mean you'd buy an entertainment title that you don't watch or enjoy yourself. So the non-sport market becomes a lot more selective, and prices don't get as high.

Just a few years ago, before the pandemic, a $10,000 non-sport autograph card from a new product was unheard of and now we have them. But sports cards had them since before LeBron James rookies. Shaq rookies were going for 5 figures. A Tom Brady rookie autograph card was doing $400K. Everybody knows them and everybody wants them.

That is not the case with non-sport cards where the set used to come first and then the premium hits followed. I say used to because we all know the infusion of big money from flippers and "investors" has made it harder to stay with this hobby, but I do think that the goals of the actual non-sport card collectors have stayed pretty much the same. They want to buy what they like, and they want to complete something.

quote:

Originally posted by webjon:
I think this is just more proof that for this type of set the price per box has basically no bearing on the price of the autographs inside it. . .

There seems to be some confusion about the point I was trying to make.

All I meant was that a meek mill pop century autograph was worth the same as a meek mill decadence autograph despite the latter product's significantly higher price.

Meek mill is just an example this is true for all the signers I've seen in these releases.

quote:

Originally posted by mykdude:

quote:

Originally posted by webjon:
while this is pretty clearly true for entertainment cards, it must not be true for sports cards otherwise why would they continuously try it.

I dunno, I see all these sports gambling commercials....you know they can't be winning unless a bunch of customers are losing. The lottery doesn't survive with most people coming out on top.

The above exchange was the part of the thread that prompted my response. I think we all agreed that higher box costs in non-sport products doesn't automatically result in more valuable autograph cards compared to the same or like signers in less expensive products. The comparison between signers in Pop Century 2023 Metal and Leaf 2023 Decadence is just the latest example, and probably the most obvious example, considering the exorbitant cost of a Decadence box.

My comments pertained to the reason why sports cards get away with it. Sports card collectors are used to going after individual players and have a uniformity in focus. Established stars have long term demand and rookies and phenoms have short term demand. In any given pro sport, everyone is after the same people and the "best" card will generally come out of the most expensive box.

Non-sport doesn't hold together like that in my opinion, and collector demand is more title driven than for an individual. Card makers and card sellers try to get non-sport to adapt to the same bait, including the push for non-sport "rookie" cards that don't exist, but I think more collectors will refuse than be assimilated. Leaf's Decadence $1,000 boxes has been a huge overreach as far as I can tell by way of eBay sales and what the market is willing to pay.

Agree.

Also -- I've been buying some hockey cards on ePack and have noticed that the same autograph can be worth massively different amounts depending on what 'subset' it is from regardless of all other factors. i.e. 'Future Watch' versions of autographs can sell for 10x non future watch autographs with all other factors being the same.

The other thing I noticed is that most of the signers in hockey cards have a TON of different autographs -- like 50-60 different autograph cards being available on COMC at any given time for the people I looked at was the norm. It makes sense because the same people are signing for multiple sets year after year, but outside of like William Shatner and maybe a couple of other people this doesn't happen in entertainment cards.

Given the huge number of options for autograph collectors in hockey cards it does make sense that they grasp on to something -- a subset, brand, etc -- to differentiate value.

Black Friday sale on Leaf website has Decadence boxes at $799.99, a 20% discount if anyone is interested. I think they need a bigger boat, ahh, I mean cut.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:
Black Friday sale on Leaf website has Decadence boxes at $799.99, a 20% discount if anyone is interested. I think they need a bigger boat, ahh, I mean cut.

Just for the record...

This is already below the price I was asked to pay for this one.

I realize the big guys probably by direct at a much better discount, but this one has fallen fast.

Ed