Thanks for sharing that John. I'm always amazed at the level of expertise some card collectors possess in the many varied and specialized segments of this enormous hobby.

Raven

Its a pleasure, as I have mentioned before I am a member of the Cartophilic Society which come into being sometime in the 1930's and has produced reference books about cards Both cigarette and trade ever since. Our research editor for many years was Edward Wharton-Tigar (he appears in the Guinness book of records as a collector having the biggest card collection and which was donated to the British Museum). I suspect that I am not the only member here.

regards

John

Many years ago I was given a large box of cigarette cards by my late grandparents. They never smoked themselves but some of their family did. Anyway, there were hundreds of cards all mixed up and various brands, with most from the 1920s. The only sports ones in there were cricketers from the England and Australia Ashes teams. The rest were non-sports.

The absolute gem for me was the Cavanders 'Peeps' series(I think there were 4 sets, with the last one being dinosaurs iirc), which were designed for viewing in a stereoscope. So you had to collect a Left and a Right version of each card for it to work. They are stunning photos, and of some historical places that no longer allow visitors or no longer exist, thanks to wars. As a historian I absolutely treasure that set. I bought a little stereoscope and they really do work at being 3D images.

I did sell off all the other cards, and although I've never collected cigarette cards before or after being given the box, I loved researching the cards and seeing the pictures and designs. I really enjoyed my little visit into cigarette cards and it definitely taught me not to dismiss that hobby; if I had I'd never have found that 'Peeps' set.
Although, I do wonder at the state of the lungs of the people that collected all the cards with the left and right of most of the pictures on 3 of the sets.

Looking through my reference material see that Cavanders Ltd issued their four stereoscope "peeps" series in a couple of different sizes, these being 64mm x 38mm and 75mm x 50mm, they also issued their first series as normal cards being an extra large size.

Collecting cigarette cards is still alive and kicking despite that most cigarette cards were issued prior to 1940 and there are numerous dealers here in the UK as well as at least one dealer catalogue. You can also collect old cigarette packets as well as over 350 reprinted sets of all sorts of cards these being clearly marked as reprints. There are also several dealers that have monthly auctions as well as being numerous card fairs.

regards

John

quote:

Originally posted by JOHN LEVITT:
Looking through my reference material see that Cavanders Ltd issued their four stereoscope "peeps" series in a couple of different sizes, these being 64mm x 38mm and 75mm x 50mm, they also issued their first series as normal cards being an extra large size.

Collecting cigarette cards is still alive and kicking despite that most cigarette cards were issued prior to 1940 and there are numerous dealers here in the UK as well as at least one dealer catalogue. You can also collect old cigarette packets as well as over 350 reprinted sets of all sorts of cards these being clearly marked as reprints. There are also several dealers that have monthly auctions as well as being numerous card fairs.

regards

John

Going by that, most of my Cavanders 'Peeps' are the smaller size, but the stereoscope I got came with a 6 pairs of the larger size.

A couple of the cards I had were from a manufacturer I hadn't heard of before then "Cohen Weenen"...I think. And those dated from about 1899/1900 and despite being a bit rough around the edges they sold separately for quite a lot more than I would have guessed.

I recently came across some cards that I collect priced at ridiculous prices between $350 to $900 which of course in not unusual in this day and age. The cards themselves date from the early 1950's and were issued stapled to their paper thin wrapping. Despite their age they are not priced by dealers usually no more than £10 each. What surprised me that these cards are graded no higher than one if I understand what is shown on the slab correctly. The cards are from Junior Pastimes Star Pix and all that were issued will have two staple holes and if unlucky you might even have some rust marks. Fortunately I already have the cards so I won't be bidding and if I was I would probably go for the ungraded one with a starting price of £5. My dealers catalogue has them priced at £2 25p.

regards

John

There is a reckoning coming on many of these cards that have significantly increased in value over the last three years. That is only my opinion, but I believe the signs are there for people to see now. The sport card market has already noticeably begun to suffer. Not crashed yet but pointed in that direction. In demand non-sport cards are still rising or holding their inflated prices at the moment.

The last three years have been dominated by the pandemic. People were isolated and bored. Even though it hurt many people financially, there were even more people who seemed to make far more money with far less work. It was a boom time for disposable income and people with nothing to spend it on. Throw in talk of investment potential and you have a lot more people, with less knowledge, willing to spend money on hobbies they didn't do much with before.

Now things are coming back to reality and there is a last rush to pump up prices and sell before the same bunch of buyers lose interest and start wanting to cash in. Anybody who bought on the upswing in this period is likely to be very disappointed, even on those "best" cards, in the next year or two. And again that's just my opinion, but if you don't want to call it a crash, call it a market correction. That's what happens to investments too, even though cards and autographs shouldn't ever be a substitute for a bank account.

Not sure I would use the word reckoning but yeah, too many new collectors having weak standards in the concepts of rare and value. An upside for me is I learned to be satisfied with being priced out of certain cards. I kinda figure online case breakers will be caught holding over valued product early on. When those start to dry up you know the end is near.

I think the cards with real value may settle but they will never go back to their original prices.

I also think the rise of custom card making has actually reached standards to impact what the manufacturers have to offer when it comes to autographs.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: mykdude,

Most of what I chase has avoided the bulk of the sets targeted by the speculators.

I did buy a fair bit of Fleer Ultra Spider-Man including a Carnage Jambalaya in February 2021 for $75. Late last year I sold a it for $230. At the peak this was a $500+ card. Another Carnage Jambalaya sold a couple of weeks ago for $115. So the pricing on this card is nearly back to where it started at the beginning of the hype and is down ~75% from the peak. I think lesser characters have fared even worse than this.

All of that said -- I think the speculators are still dabbling in our hobby -- it is just that they move from product to product pumping and dumping. . . Right now they are focused on Kakawow Disney.

It is kind of hilarious to see adult men getting excited about pulling a Disney princess signature card -- and also scary to see these selling for hundreds of dollars or more.

Some hard to find items that weren't targeted by speculators dried up during the Covid times too. I don't think the pricing will drop as quickly on those.

quote:

Originally posted by mykdude:
I think the cards with real value may settle but they will never go back to their original prices.

I know what you mean, but at what point did the original prices end and the hype and pump begin?

To me, non-sport card trends have always followed behind the same trends in sport cards. Maybe a year or two later and with less volume and price, but the fortunes of sports card collectors spill over and foreshadow what happens in the non-sport market. Even to what goes into the products, non-sport card makers copy what works in sports cards.

It wasn't very long ago that $100 was the break point for elite non-sport cards. The idea of something hitting $1,000 was almost unheard of in modern non-sport cards. Right now, just take a look at the list of non-sport cards you can compile, almost all certified autograph cards, almost all fairly recently made, that are trading, or trying to trade, at more than $1,000. Only a few of them have any reason to be there.

It's fair to say that almost no entertainment autograph of a living person is worth that kind of money, but it's the combination of the signature and the short printed, generally artificially limited card, that makes it a high dollar collectible. Of course, that's only as long as buyers' demand supports the price.

Generally speaking, collectors don't sell off their items until they find another obsession or have an overriding financial need. However, I personally don't think the meteoric upsurge in non-sport prices has been driven by the pure collectors. I know I've only been looking for bargains for a while now, and most Card Talk posters seem to be talking about slowing down or staying away from stuff they used to buy too.

The non-sport card market has been driven by others in this pandemic period and when those others start to leave in bunches, the same way they came in, that's when prices will turn back to the original. Will that be a crash? For some people yes, for collectors maybe not at all.

quote:

Originally posted by webjon:
Most of what I chase has avoided the bulk of the sets targeted by the speculators.

Thats a good point too, I spent quite a bit of time trolling the ignored or unknown areas of the hobby. I collected quite a few of the first sets and autographs from the late 80s and early 90s. Felt a little bit like collecting the history of where things are now.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:


I know what you mean, but at what point did the original prices end and the hype and pump begin?


The non-sport card market has been driven by others in this pandemic period and when those others start to leave in bunches, the same way they came in, that's when prices will turn back to the original. Will that be a crash? For some people yes, for collectors maybe not at all.

Hahaha yup! One persons crash is another's time to get back in the game. Been going through my database looking at my "high end" cards realizing my investment is a fraction of current prices. I get I could sell em and hope for lower prices later but if enough collectors stay it could mean they are finally getting locked up. Like you said there are only so many. If we were back in a world without internet the reality of hard to find would be more prevalent. We were fooled that numbers like 20,000 was rare back in the 90s while a modern autograph tends to be 500 or less. Prices might have gone crazy already if we didn't have the one stop shop called ebay.

From my records I moved around the market fairly well up til about 2017 or 18. Obviously cards like RDJ and Bowie were already going crazy, I remember debating in 2015 if I should spend $350 on Bowies autograph card and never jumped. Crazy times.

I have been chasing 2 TOS autographs for a while to complete the set of singles signers. Both not overly represented on eBay except at some crazy prices. Someone posted both as auctions last week, I won one and lost the other but it made me think there is still life in this hobby as although the cards siting on eBay as BINs haven't moved, the auctions did garner some interest and both sale prices were pretty decent, more towards the BIN prices than bargains.

Now I just need that last card, it's a Nimoy which are pretty expensive these days... But that's the fun..

This seems like a rather rare card, but the sale price caught me. . .

Farscape In Motion C11 Chiana relic $700 234976983386

All the sales in Terapeak are $580, 510 and $313 so this seems to be a jump.

Looking on ebay, a Pop Century Donald Trump auto sold for $ 4,100.

A 2022 Decision Series Trump cut auto sold for $1,125

https://www.ebay.com/itm/27586...rksid=p2047675.l2557

Didn't realize that the demand for Chunk had gone up so much.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/17582...rksid=p2047675.l2557

Wow!

I can't really point to listings like those and say that the cards or autographs have significantly gone up. Not only don't I know who could possibly be buying them at these crazy prices, much of the time I don't know anyone buying them at any price. Obscurity doesn't usually make for high demand. There must be a world of deep pocket experts somewhere that I don't have access to, or it's all a scam.

For decades I used the word "gaslight", derived from the old movie "Gaslight", and I always had to explain its meaning because younger people never heard of it. Now "gaslighting" has become a new catch phrase and its more prevalent than ever.

So who are you going to believe, eBay sellers, hobby experts and social influencers, or your lying eyes and common sense?

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:
Obscurity doesn't usually make for high demand. There must be a world of deep pocket experts somewhere that I don't have access to, or it's all a scam.

Well unfortunately when only 75 cards are produced obscurity is all you got. Sometimes it's high demand and other times it aint.

I'm shocked to see Chunk's autograph selling so high -- thanks for the tip. It was always on my 'I should pick that up' list but I'm pretty sure I didn't.

Someone on Blowout said that the sports card investors who drove the prices up on Marvel numbered cards had turned their sites on Star Wars . . . no clue if it is true, but that is a crazy price for that card.