I give you Diamond.....Black Diamond

https://www.cardboardconnectio...s-bond-trading-cards

Black Diamond is a popular line for UD, but once again it is a skip box product. One pack per box, one hit per box/pack (Autograph, Diamond Relic or Gold Nugget). And don't think that you can take your nugget to the pawn shop either.

These cards are always nice looking and the base cards have the same odds as all other cards, so they can be even more valuable. However, I think that this product is going to need some big signers not seen before to attract any previous Bond card collectors. Black Diamond traders may be more enthusiastic about it.

I can't touch it because I only want to pull an autograph, not a gem chip. Since there may likely be only 3 or 4 autographs per ten box case, I can't afford to risk the blind buy here.

This will be curious.

I'd like to say the speculators won't be interested in this product . . . but Kakawow Disney proves that speculators are not rational so who knows.

If the speculators stay away this is going to be a tough sell due to the likely price point.

For the true James Bond collector that is still collecting this issue in my view is likely to 'kill off' the collecting bug. Collecting Rittenhouse Bond cards became very costly towards the end losing collectors along the way and UD seem to be determined to finish the job.

regards

John

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:
However, I think that this product is going to need some big signers not seen before to attract any previous Bond card collectors.

Yup! The generic Bond format with no real focus on No Time to Die leaves me to think the autograph line up will be the usual suspects.

The least they could do is break these releases into Bond groups based on the actor. Maybe put Dalton and Lazenby in the same group.

For many years now this hobby has seemed determined to destroy itself and this product is another nail in the coffin.

The set is simply impossible to collect and yet will cost a fortune and do nothing to further the hobby or attract new people into it, people who are liable to stay that is.

quote:

Originally posted by wolfie:
The set is simply impossible to collect and yet will cost a fortune and do nothing to further the hobby or attract new people into it, people who are liable to stay that is.

These high end sets are designed for character/entertainer collectors -- not set collectors.

I think they are hoping that having a high end release that is available on ePack will bring in new collectors.

Unfortunately both of these come at the cost of traditional collectors.

So you get 60 cards total per case, but there is no indication as to how many cards are in the base set

They haven't posted the base card checklist yet, but this product will probably be along the lines of UD's Black Diamond Marvel.

That had 99 base cards, numbered to #/149 copies each. Then there are a slew of short-printed parallels in different colors and another 49 card chase set, also with multi-colored parallel cards.

That's not even getting into the "hit" checklists. It looks like boxes of this 2021 product are going for $1,200 minimum now. I don't know who can afford that or why they would want to, but I'm pretty sure it's not card collectors.

100 Card Base Set, so 100 boxes to have enough base to make a set, with perfect collation or trading furiously (ePack's biggest selling point).

Full details for those that don't want to click through to someplace else:

quote:

BOX BREAK:
(1) Autographed, Diamond Relic or Gold Nugget Card
(1) Exquisite Collection Card
(1) Tech Card
(1) Manufactured Relic Card
(1) 007 Metal Array (unsigned), 007 Metal Poster or Film Logo Relic Card
(1) Base Set Card

2023 UPPER DECK BLACK DIAMOND JAMES BOND TRADING CARDS PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS:
(100) Card Base Set with six different parallels!

Search for a variety of numbered Parallels including Base Set Gold Spectrum #’d to 10
Find RARE Black Diamond Relic Parallels including the ULTRA-RARE Black 1-of-1!
Stunning Metal Array Cards, printed on Metal with three colorful parallels are #’d to 99 or less
Keep an eye out for coveted Diamond Relic cards!
Base Set Diamond Relic Parallels boasts one to four diamond relics!
Exciting Band of Color insert cards features six diamond relics, each a different color: red, orange, yellow, green, blue, and purple.
Look for Dossier Insert Cards including RARE autographed and black versions #’d to 25
Discover RARE and unique serial numbered Autographed Relic Booklets!
Exquisite Collection Base Cards and Parallels
Look for exciting colored parallels numbered as low as 1!
Search for RARE, HARD-SIGNED Exquisite Collection Autographs!
Collect Iconic 007 Metal Movie Posters and Film Logos Relic Cards
RARE Short Prints
Autograph Logo Variants
Find exciting autographed cards from Black Diamond favorites!
Silver on Black Signatures
Sparking Signatures

CASE HITS! – (2) Diamond or Gold Nugget Relics and (1) Relic Booklet or Auto Relic Booklet in Every Case!!

I heard there is going to be a retail release where there is one base card every 3 packs......it only gets worse from there.

quote:

Originally posted by Scifi Cards:
100 Card Base Set, so 100 boxes to have enough base to make a set, with perfect collation or trading furiously (ePack's biggest selling point).

Full details for those that don't want to click through to someplace else:

[QUOTE]BOX BREAK:
(1) Autographed, Diamond Relic or Gold Nugget Card
(1) Exquisite Collection Card
(1) Tech Card
(1) Manufactured Relic Card
(1) 007 Metal Array (unsigned), 007 Metal Poster or Film Logo Relic Card
(1) Base Set Card

2023 UPPER DECK BLACK DIAMOND JAMES BOND TRADING CARDS PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS:
(100) Card Base Set with six different parallels!

Coming next -- sets in which most packs are empty, and you get one base card for every five packs.

Auto cards will have only one letter of the signature per card; so for Arnold Schwarzenegger it will take 20 cards to get the full signature (but good luck with that, since the "z" card is short-signed, to limit the total number of possible autographs).

On the plus side, the flippers will bust Bond Black Diamond boxes and there will be a lot more Bond cards available as single buys. Anything with a gem or nugget will ask good money, but won't be worth the chip you get. Autographs of common signers might not be that much higher than the same signers in RA, if the demand is light. And they should come out in ePacks about 90 days later, which means there will be another wave of product.

Another side effect might be that the RA Bond autograph cards go up in price. They will look like affordable alternatives, still on licensed Bond cards, compared to the same signers in Black Diamond.

Card makers have really "jumped the shark" on these top tier products of major titles. Franchise titles have an established following. That's what makes them popular and a safer bet with less risk to put out. But when those followers can't follow anymore, who do the flippers think they will flip to?

Even though you can logically see this coming, nothing will stop until everybody loses.

I see Black Diamond as a way to keep an aging franchise around.

It seems to be that the number of collectors of cards has decreased. There aren't enough collectors anymore to crank out 50,000 boxes of a product and sell them at every corner store, comic book shop and kay-bee toys in the country. Also you can no longer cover the cost of a box by selling the base cards/base sets in a box.

The master set collectors, base set collectors and 1-box buyers seem to decrease in number constantly.

In many ways I think it would be easier to sell 50,000 $20 boxes with a handful of hits seeded 1 in 10 boxes to 50,000 set collectors to get to $1,000,000 in sales. I think this is pretty representative of what was happening in the 1990s.

Obviously things evolved from there, but a few keys were that box prices went up and the amount collectors were willing to pay for base sets went down.

At some point the manufacturers had to figure out how to sell more product to the same number of collectors. So more 'hits' were introduced to add value. At the same time set prices continued to erode even though manufacturers were including fewer sets in a box.

The trends continue. . . There are even fewer collectors today, and base set value continues to erode: sets of recent Rittenhouse sets can be bought on eBay for under $9 shipped. After shipping and fees I doubt the seller takes home $5.

Some manufacturers have attempted to add value to base sets by creating short prints -- similar to adding 'hits' all those years ago. This obviously alienates some buyers but the reality is that the base sets, short print base and even most chase sets don't drive a significant percentage of the sales. The manufacturer still has to sell the $1,000,000 or whatever in product that they were selling 50,000 $20 boxes of years ago. . . but now they have to make the same $1,000,000 in sales selling 80-90% fewer boxes, to 90-95% fewer collectors. . .

There aren't a lot of ways to do that -- they need to sell more product or more expensive product to fewer people. . . or the product doesn't get made at all. In the last few years Upper Deck announced a Bond Women set, 2 X-files sets and at least 1 Kevin Smith set that they never bothered to produce/release.

If Bond Black diamond fails do you think we'll see more Bond sets at all? Personally I have my doubts.

It is unfortunate that we have found ourselves here as a hobby/industry. . . But we are no longer mainstream. We aren't buying packs at the corner store, or even really mass merchants -- most people won't even see non-sport cards unless they go looking for them.

Perhaps we are in a death spiral. . . But, for now, at least we have something.

quote:

Originally posted by webjon:

There aren't enough collectors anymore to crank out 50,000 boxes of a product

In many ways I think it would be easier to sell 50,000 $20 boxes . . . to 50,000 set collectors

I doubt there are even 5000 non-sport collectors sufficiently motivated to buy a box of cards, especially a low-value $20 box. So many of what we think of as "non-sport collectors" are really autograph collectors. Take signed cards away, and no one gives a crap.

quote:

Originally posted by Bill Mullins:
I doubt there are even 5000 non-sport collectors sufficiently motivated to buy a box of cards, especially a low-value $20 box. So many of what we think of as "non-sport collectors" are really autograph collectors. Take signed cards away, and no one gives a crap.

I wouldn't say no one exactly, but your point is well taken and is nothing new. Putting guaranteed autograph cards in boxes is what saved the hobby and kept collectors interested after overproduction and the ease of internet access ruined it. Like most good ideas, it went too far and ruined it again.

Sports cards started seeding autographs as a guaranteed hit only in the late 90's. Before that there were autograph cards in both sports and non-sport products, but usually only in random boxes at high odds. Once they were guaranteed to be in there, interest picked up and so did box prices. After a while they had to be there to be popular with collectors. Remember how card collectors shunned Inkworks' "Twilight" in 2008 because they secured no signers, just costumes. Only movie fans wanted it and it would have been a huge success for the maker, had Inkworks not cut back on production because of the lack of hobby pre-orders. That was ironic, but it wasn't necessary to have card collectors when the title sold itself.

In part, that's what missing now. Franchise titles have been mined to death and some new titles may be popular, but that doesn't mean new fans want the cards or even know about the cards.

And then there are the boxes released with pricing between $125 - $275 on average. Even with autographs, who is going to buy that on a whim. That's the big difference to me. At one time I could afford to pick up boxes of whatever I saw and be satisfied with the contents. That's impossible for me to do now.

Now card collectors and autograph card collectors find that they are losing more than 60% of what they paid once they open an average premium box, and they didn't get anything they wanted, and they can't even complete any part of the set. The card collector base has eroded, partly because they got what they asked for and didn't understand the logical place it was all going to end up.

quote:

Originally posted by Bill Mullins:

quote:

Originally posted by webjon:

There aren't enough collectors anymore to crank out 50,000 boxes of a product

In many ways I think it would be easier to sell 50,000 $20 boxes . . . to 50,000 set collectors

I doubt there are even 5000 non-sport collectors sufficiently motivated to buy a box of cards, especially a low-value $20 box. So many of what we think of as "non-sport collectors" are really autograph collectors. Take signed cards away, and no one gives a crap.

That's exactly my point, although I should have been more clear -- if it were possible I think it would be way simpler to sell a simple product at mass retail than it is to produce a complex set like Black Diamond.

What's it cost to assemble 50-60 different images (that you own or are public domain) and then print at least 1000 of each and then put 5-6 singles in a fancy pack without putting two of the same card in that pack and then print all the boxes to fit however many packs go into them? And then you have to have buyers willing to put your cards out for sale and that's after they had to discount the packs the last time they handled trading cards, and of course, you have to ship all those boxes of cards. Last week, it cost me $15 just to ship two bags of cookies to a friend in Florida.

And all that assumes no chase cards at all. Paying celebrities and even not-so-famous people to sign just 40-50 cards so you have some kind of extra gimmick probably costs at least a few hundred dollars per signer. You might be able to find some sketchers who work cheap but they also haven't quite mastered drawing a human form. However, I doubt you can make money selling the box for $20. I'm wondering if you even break even at $40. And remember those images have to be interesting to at least a several thousand people who also collect trading cards so you need to guess right on the subject of the set. Anybody have real numbers?

quote:

Originally posted by catskilleagle:
And remember those images have to be interesting to at least a several thousand people who also collect trading cards so you need to guess right on the subject of the set.

Right there is the reason why non-sport cards have always been in less demand, less valuable marketwise and less produced in volume. It's a way broader market than sports cards in terms of subjects, but it breaks up into too many smaller pieces. Non-sport card collectors tend to focus on only a couple of interests that have a few titles/products. So each segment, and each title belonging in that segment, only appeals to a small fraction of the base that will be actually buying the cards and know all about that particular segment. At one time non-sport card collectors had the freedom to sample lots of titles, but once prices became more prohibitive, many buyers cut back their focus to only their core products. At some point, some gave up on new stuff altogether.

It's simpler with sports cards to find buyers because, even though there are more cards, there are only so many sports, be it pro or minor league or amateur, that have a market with base fans. They will follow either baseball, football. basketball or hockey at the pro level. Only baseball has a minor league. The fringe sports are golf, racing, tennis, boxing and Olympics. Full set products are rarely made for those. I'll leave wrestling separate to itself.

Card collectors who follow any of those sports will spread out with the players and may concentrate of on one product, while still sampling from many products covering that sport. The common link is the sport that will have many cards of the same players and teams in all the sets from the same season.

This just isn't true with non-sport entertainment cards. Because you collect Star Wars cards doesn't mean you are interested in James Bond cards. Because you bought Game of Thrones cards doesn't mean you want Doctor Who cards. If you want autograph cards, you may stick only to Pop Century and single sales and not touch another sealed box of anything.

The perception is that non-sport cards can be produced and marketed just like sports cards, but they are fundamentally different, and the collectors don't buy the same way.

As for cheap boxes, $20 NO not anymore, but $60 should still be doable on a popular subject. However, an expensive license will sink the whole thing.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:
The perception is that non-sport cards can be produced and marketed just like sports cards, but they are fundamentally different, and the collectors don't buy the same way.

I think the simple sign is when known production numbers (less than 300) take years to disappear then we know the audience is small.