quote:

Originally posted by X:
So really, best to hold off I guess and let the product properly hit the market?

You really don't know yet. I thought that $300 price on the first Weaver autograph sold was a good buy, but that's because I expected it to be at least $400. Early buyers picking up before prices settle usually do seem to overpay to me, but the opposite could just as easily be true on certain select cards.

You really have to decide how much you need the cards right now. Would you be sicker if you passed up a good price or you got stuck with a bad price?

I was thinking about buying a case of this, especially since by the numbers it appears only 300 were produced, but after seeing how low most of the singles are selling for I just can't justify spending $1100+ on one. I can just buy the cards I'm interested in for far less.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

quote:

Originally posted by X:
So really, best to hold off I guess and let the product properly hit the market?

You really don't know yet. I thought that $300 price on the first Weaver autograph sold was a good buy, but that's because I expected it to be at least $400. Early buyers picking up before prices settle usually do seem to overpay to me, but the opposite could just as easily be true on certain select cards.

You really have to decide how much you need the cards right now. Would you be sicker if you passed up a good price or you got stuck with a bad price?

I don't need them, but I want them!

I don't mind overpaying (a tiny bit) in the end if I picked a nice signature and it was someone I really wanted because usually a card always turns up cheaper at some point - only one or two people can ever to jump on something at the lowest price ever seen.

So I suppose... sicker at passing up a good price but I have always said, if you're prepared to wait it out, you'll always have a another chance at getting the rarest cards for less than you might think so know my chance would come round again. But when?

One of the best examples I in my own collecting is the Alan Cumming James Bond full-bleed auto. Bought it for £30 at release in 2006, decided to sell it a year or so later as didn't want to pursue the full-bleed cards even though I really liked the image on this one. Sold it at auction (big mistake!) for £22.
Decided a couple years later to pick up select FB autos again and this was one of my favourites, and was always going for £50-£70 minimum. Thought I'd wait it out for a cheaper price but the over the years saw them go for £80, £90, £120 odd, then at its peak £280/$400!!! I REALLY regretted selling it when I saw that auction, and had pretty much given up hope of getting that card again.
Then last year I lost an auction for it that ended about £90 and a few months later won one at £46! So it do believe my own advice but it took 6+ years to find it again!

But as you say, certain select cards may be rare and we don't even know it yet. I'm used to buying products from companies that give you far more info so I am far more confident in my buying. I don't have a clue with this!

What's fair value/price on Weaver? I thought around $300 but might it move up? I do think long term this will be a solid auto. This won't be like Star Wars, or even James Bond, with loads of sets and repeat signings.

I did some calculations with a friend, and we think this is almost certainly somewhere between 300-375 cases, which is a tiny run by just about any hobby product standards. Weavers look like they might fall around every 2-3 cases, so not a lot.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Goldfish,

quote:

Originally posted by Goldfish:
What's fair value/price on Weaver? I thought around $300 but might it move up? I do think long term this will be a solid auto. This won't be like Star Wars, or even James Bond, with loads of sets and repeat signings.

How high is the sky, how low is the ocean?

There are too few sales on this autograph card right now to judge what market value will be. It's an average range of confirmed sales. Take about 10% of the highest prices and 10% of the lowest prices and just throw them out of the equation because they are not typical. Take the 80% in the middle and divide it up by number of sales and you have an average price. Must be confirmed sales, BINS and other wishful thinking don't count either.

Now opinions are a different matter because they really don't have to be based on data if you don't want it. You can say it sold for this, but it should have sold for that. You could say an autograph card will appreciate in value because the signer is not likely to do more, as you just did with Weaver. You could also say that there are likely to be many autographs by this person and the earlier ones are likely to decrease as the increased supply matches the decreasing demand.

I agree with you that it should be a solid autograph card. I think the $300 sale was a low price, but that's just my opinion. She is signing, so you can't be sure Weaver autographs wouldn't turn up in Ghostbusters or Avatar, if any set ever gets made. Unless the signer is deceased, you can never say never.

Fair market on this card won't be established until enough confirmed sales show up. The supply has not been disclosed. This is the best auto in the product and Ripley is her main role, so it will have great demand. What that translates to in real money always depends on what collectors are willing to pay.

How's that for a non-answer. I would like to own the card.

quote:

Originally posted by Goldfish:

I did some calculations with a friend, and we think this is almost certainly somewhere between 300-375 cases, which is a tiny run by just about any hobby product standards. Weavers look like they might fall around every 2-3 cases, so not a lot.

What are you guys looking at for case numbers? My initial figure (guess) was more like 1000. Then I saw Propaganda Posters Autograph numbered to 70 and Game Art Autograph (green border stripe) numbered to 30. Both of those multiplied by 10 to equal 1000. Insert rate at 2 per case would be 500.

There are unnumbered Game Art Autographs as well (black border stripe) that I would assume to be produced at a higher rate than the numbered ones. If doubled (60) that would bring us up to 800 cases. If 100 which would seem more standard, then we are up to 1000.

That's roughly the production numbers of a solid Star Trek or Bond release from RA. Who is nice enough to number their boxes.

Of course this assumes the case breakout numbers on cardboard connection are correct. :-)


And Weaver just sold on a true auction at $461.89.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: mykdude,

I figured out the number of cases by the dog tag autographs. They are inserted 1:4 cases and there are 15 of them #'d to 5 each. That's 75 total x 4 (for 1 in 4 cases) = 300 cases.

And Weaver just sold on a true auction at $461.89.[/QUOTE]

I just could not pay that much for a sticker auto, no matter how iconic the actor/ character .

Makes you appreciate the efforts of Inkworks in the past and Rittenhouse, Cryptozoic, Breygent and all the other purely non sports card manufacturers who know on card is best and go the extra mile to do it.

quote:

Originally posted by Triple-Frog:
And Weaver just sold on a true auction at $461.89.

I just could not pay that much for a sticker auto, no matter how iconic the actor/ character .

Makes you appreciate the efforts of Inkworks in the past and Rittenhouse, Cryptozoic, Breygent and all the other purely non sports card manufacturers who know on card is best and go the extra mile to do it.[/QUOTE]

________________________________________________

To be truthful, it's hard to pay that much for any autograph knowing that the signer is not bound to past habits and can strike again anywhere. How many people swore that an SMG autograph would never appear in a Buffy card set? She is going on her second now, probably will appear in other titles too before she is done.

Just my unscientific estimate, but I feel that around $400 is a reasonable market price for this card. I do think it would be higher if it were on-card just because there would be more demand. There are still collectors who dislike sticker signatures enough to avoid them or discount them.

I will always prefer an on-card, even if it is from a secondary title, which many collectors seem to refuse. I don't have a problem with that because it is the same genuine autograph all over, but others only want the iconic role and will pay dearly for it. I see it as a waste of money to pay $150 for James Earl Jones as Vader, when he is $35 in Conan. That where personal opinions and boundaries come in and it's just a matter of what you like.

When there are no on-card autographs, I am resigned to stickers should something turn up. You could always sell it if the elusive on-card ever appears.

quote:

Originally posted by Logan:
I figured out the number of cases by the dog tag autographs. They are inserted 1:4 cases and there are 15 of them #'d to 5 each. That's 75 total x 4 (for 1 in 4 cases) = 300 cases.

Ahhh ok. Is that stated on the packs? Because if 300 cases is the run at a set of 15 dual autographs makes for 15 of each. Seems really low. Plus that would mean the art autos are inserted at a much higher rate.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

Just my unscientific estimate, but I feel that around $400 is a reasonable market price for this card.

Weaver first time and still not sure if she will sign for Ghostbusters. Yes I think I would have to agree. Still a bit difficult to tell this is a short production as the demand is also pretty high.

Like Guardians of the Galaxy, I see this set quickly drying up into collectors hands and the Weaver will always be the hot card. Still have only seen one Harry Dean so far though.

quote:

Originally posted by mykdude:

Is that stated on the packs?

I haven't opened or seen any packs so I'm not sure. But the ad shows 1:4 cases.

quote:

Originally posted by mykdude:

Because if 300 cases is the run at a set of 15 dual autographs makes for 15 of each. Seems really low.

I'm thinking that for many of the duals there may not even be 15 that exist. The most "common" one seems to be Tom Skerritt/Veronica Cartwright. There have been about a dozen of that one that have turned up so far, while many of the others have not been seen once.

quote:

Originally posted by Logan:

I'm thinking that for many of the duals there may not even be 15 that exist. The most "common" one seems to be Tom Skerritt/Veronica Cartwright. There have been about a dozen of that one that have turned up so far, while many of the others have not been seen once.

Yeah...a big bag of strangeness this is. The Weyland Yutani Auto Art cards are numbered to 70. I am assuming that is considered an artist autograph. At 2 per case that is 350. Not to mention the Game artwork cards numbered to 30. I wonder if everyone in the set is numbered?

So far I have seen only 6 different dual autos. Which would still only put them at a production between 35 and 40 with a 300 case run.

If my math is correct this puts the single autographs at a rate between 110 and 120 each.


Just weird.

Thanks for the info.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: mykdude,

quote:

Originally posted by mykdude:
Weaver first time and still not sure if she will sign for Ghostbusters. Yes I think I would have to agree. Still a bit difficult to tell this is a short production as the demand is also pretty high.

I think it has to be short printed, just because her fee per signature would be pricey and UD is not likely to have loaded up on it, especially if the case production is as low as you guys seem to be calculating.

There is no indication that she will be in Crypto's Ghostbusters, it's just that the autograph list has not been finalized, so it's still possible. I tend to doubt it.

Should the Siggy card be half price as she has only signed half her name?

Seems reasonable to me.

Wolfie, I actually haven't seen that from the few samples of the card I have spotted on the Bay.

She seems to have laid down close to her money signature. The Sigourney is evident, not the Siggy. Weaver is rarely more than the W and a slash.

I have seen samples of in-person signatures that are letter for letter, but it's inconsistent even within the same show. One person may get it perfect and the next just OK, but the Weaver is dragged. I don't know if it's because she takes more care on certain items or not.

Anyway, the Siggy ones are the ones I don't like and prefer to skip. The autographs here look acceptable, maybe not letter perfect, but not the kind she throws out for free.

quote:

Originally posted by wolfie:
Should the Siggy card be half price as she has only signed half her name?

Seems reasonable to me.

I went to her talk at LFCC last year and she said her nickname on sets is 'Siggy' - I never knew that!

Raven, I noticed at the convention that it wasn't about care, as she carefully and slowly laid down ALL her signatures in appropriate places, but she tended to only sign 'letter for letter' on large items like posters other cast members had signed. For smaller more usual stuff like photos it was her 'W-slash' autograph. Maybe a more 'special' item got her full sig?

I'm really loving this set, I have not been as excited for a product in a long time and Upper Deck have made even the dreaded stickers look half-decent. So far I have picked up 8 of the single autos (not interested in any of the duals), the base and one sketch. Plus the 4 dog tags I wanted (marine characters only).

I don't like 'manufactured' hits like the nonsensical Star Wars medallions but these replica dog tags are pretty neat (for the characters that would have worn them) but I do think that subset is something of a missed opportunity. Newt doesn't need a dog tag and why do we have an auto tag of Paxton but no normal dog tag? Why do just a Hicks dog tag when there are so many other characters?
With so many marines in the film we could have got some images of different characters on these cards that didn't sign for the set. With Hicks, Bishop, Hudson, Vasquez, Gorman, Apone, Drake, Frost, Ferro, Spunkmeyer, Crowe and Wiersbowski we're talking 12 possible dog tag cards for just the marines.

I like that this is an art set too simply because it means, as with the few sets that have come before, every Alien set has been completely different. The Inkworks Alien Legacy retrospective will do me just fine for a photo set.
The Propaganda cards are clever and the profiles set shall we say 'interesting' in the likeness department, but I'll forgive that for at least trying something new. Again, could have done with more characters IMO.

quote:

Originally posted by X:
I went to her talk at LFCC last year and she said her nickname on sets is 'Siggy' - I never knew that!

Raven, I noticed at the convention that it wasn't about care, as she carefully and slowly laid down ALL her signatures in appropriate places, but she tended to only sign 'letter for letter' on large items like posters other cast members had signed. For smaller more usual stuff like photos it was her 'W-slash' autograph. Maybe a more 'special' item got her full sig?

I have never done an in-person with her, but she lives over here in Manhattan and you would be surprised at some of the strange places you can run across her autograph, just because she will sign for free at premieres or plays or even on the street. I once came across her full signature on the back of some guy's business card. It probably has little value, but I like it.

Yes, she often signs Siggy, but if it's something I'm paying for I prefer at least the first name to be complete. If and when I'm getting it for nothing, I take what I get and am thankful.

X,

I have to agree any Aliens set is just a bit less than without the awesome Vasquez. She was such a major bad ***, I cant believe she didn't even rate a dog tag for this release.

Alien, being one of my first R rated movies at the theater as a kid I am excited to see the signatures represented from that first film.

I have the original 79 Topps set in a notebook with the Legacy set. This one will make for a great card set trilogy.