"Thank you for that, some great info.
I looked at the NSU box breakdowns for this, and there were only about 12 different ones shown, but an Alba and a few Camerons were pulled. Granted, people are more likely to only post results from better boxes. There were also a pretty high % of breakdowns that showed two autos per box, usually the easy ones, but not always. We've seen Topps up the "hit" count sometimes when pre-orders weren't great (Star Wars Gal 6 and Indiana Jones Masterpieces, most notbly), so maybe the same thing happened with this set.
Do you remember getting two autos in any of the boxes from your cases, Blue Horseshoe?"

Sorry it was too long ago, I only remember the big hits.

Dave.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

I objected to the calculation that 1 in 7 boxes will have a Cameron or Alba.

If the seeding of an autograph is truly random then if one is 1 in 12 boxes and the other is 1 in 16 boxes then the odds of receiving neither is .8594 (~6/7). The odds of catching at least one of the two is .1406 (~1/7).

1-(11÷12×15÷16)=.1406

If there is no chance of pulling both in the same 12 or 16 boxes then they are not truly random.

Another way to show the arithmetic is:

[1÷589] + [1÷454] is the combined number per pack.

1 ÷ (the sum above) = 1 of either per 256.38 packs or 7.12 boxes, or .1404 per box.

quote:

Originally posted by Bill DeFranzo:

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

I objected to the calculation that 1 in 7 boxes will have a Cameron or Alba.

If the seeding of an autograph is truly random then if one is 1 in 12 boxes and the other is 1 in 16 boxes then the odds of receiving neither is .8594 (~6/7). The odds of catching at least one of the two is .1406 (~1/7).

1-(11÷12×15÷16)=.1406

If there is no chance of pulling both in the same 12 or 16 boxes then they are not truly random.

Well, we kind of moved on from this Bill, but since you and allender bothered to do the math, let me say that I never questioned the numbers so much as I had a problem with the assertion. And I will stand by that, because I am nothing if not stubborn.

We can all agree on that .1406 or roughly 14% figure for the combination of the Alba and Cameron cards. We are talking random boxes here, so I would feel very comfortable in saying that it is highly LIKELY that you would get at least one of them out of ten boxes. I would not feel comfortable in saying that for seven boxes, even though the numbers come close to it, because that would be in the very extreme range.

Indeed Blue Horseshoe has a good memory that the eight box cases produced one or the other card. So that would make it a one in eight box chance in a perfect case at best. Since no one is finding a case anymore, it would just be random boxes, and eight random boxes might not get you a perfect case configuration either. So I am back to saying that a one in eight box chance is pushing it. The original assertion of one in seven boxes is way too generous.

That is all I was saying and that is what got me in trouble.

One last thing. All the prices that I quoted on Dark Angel cards and the box prices come from the NSU price guide. I don't buy these cards, so I don't know how accurate the prices are. If they are selling for more now, someone should look at putting in for an adjustment. And now I will yield because we are beating a dead horse.

All this maths will never tell you how many of something actually exist, only how many were inserted in the boxes.

I've got an unopened retail box somewhere, but I'd have to dig it out:

Nice set!
One thing about that Alba card that really benefits them is just how nice the signatures are. I looked at about 40 of them on Worthpoint, and on every single one, the signature is both names in full, with every letter easily legible, and of course, on-card. It also has a different, and very pretty, picture of her on back, so the thing is the total package where autographs go.

It so happens to be her birthday today, I just noticed on IMDB.
She is 34. Happy birthday to Jessica Alba.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

We can all agree on that .1406 or roughly 14% figure for the combination of the Alba and Cameron cards. We are talking random boxes here, so I would feel very comfortable in saying that it is highly LIKELY that you would get at least one of them out of ten boxes. I would not feel comfortable in saying that for seven boxes, even though the numbers come close to it, because that would be in the very extreme range.

It would take but a minute to calculate the actual odds for either 7 or 10 boxes but I too have moved on. Besides the concept of 'random' goes out the window when a manufacturer guarantees a master set within each case so my 2 minutes here is worth more than the 1 minute to calculate a useless probability.