If the odds are that good, why don't we see more of these two cards than what we do? I just think the way you are applying this average is misleading. And for what it is worth, NSU has boxes at $54 at book. Maybe recorded sales are not as high as you think.

I do not personally have any interest in what people do or don't believe about this set. I have none of the cards and am not interested in getting any (although I wouldn't mind the Cameron, based on his earlier work).

Short of your presentation of actual proof that Topps is either careless about its ratios on the card wrappers, or worse, is outright lying about them, this conversation has nowhere else to go but into the realms of conjecture and suspicion, places I generally try to avoid.

Whoo my friend, where did I say Topps was lying or that the ratios you posted from them are wrong? Nowhere.

I objected to the calculation that 1 in 7 boxes will have a Cameron or Alba. I understand where the average comes from, I just don't think you can put it that way when it takes a case and over to get either one. I can't remember how many boxes were in a case back then.

Sorry, I was not trying to offend you, just explain my view of the numbers, which I thought read too generous to an actual breakdown.

In any event I hope batmancity will let us know what he finds in his box on OTB day.

I wasn't offended. I was just going by the pure numbers, the only thing I can do here since I don't have the empirical evidence that you have apparently gathered where this set is concerned, evidence which runs counter to the ratios Topps provided its customers on the wrappers themselves. I wouldn't claim to know what you know, Raven, for I do not.

With that in mind, I yield, suh!!!

Just open it and let us know what was inside!

quote:

Originally posted by Chris Byrne:
Just open it and let us know what was inside!

I will but it will have to wait until late May !

Sounds good

quote:

Originally posted by chesspieceface:
I was just going by the pure numbers

If the Topps quoted ratios are right, you would get one or the other of the "big two" on average every 7.12171 boxes.

There are some boxes that aren't selling on the auction site, but the one that did sell recently was the Retail box that went for $189.99. It was a "buy it now" so I assume the buyer wasn't aware of the difference from the Hobby box and had a one-in-three chance at a Byron Mann signature.

The only Alba auto that sold recently was posted at $715.00 but "Best offer accepted," which usually means at least 80% of the original asking price. The only recent Cameron listed got no bids at a starting price of $192.58. Does it make logical sense? Not really, except that Cameron's signature doesn't seem to be worth a lot if it isn't on a Titanic item. Jessica might be riding the wave of the great success of the Fantastic Four franchise.

I agree with CPF on his numbers with this one.

I just used the trick CPF posted in the Buffy thread (it's amazing! Thanks so much) to check how much the 'best offer' on the Jessica Alba card went for - it was $650. I mean, she is the main actor in Dark Angel, and of course she's had fame and fans elsewhere, Sin City being highly notable, but I'd rather, for example, pay the £20 for an Ian McKellen autograph card on ebay and get someone with a significantly more expansive CV at this stage. He's practically a national treasure. I absolutely loved the Fantastic 4 movie when it first came out (I was 14, don't judge, had the PS2 game and loads of figures, and my photobucket account name is incriminating) but I don't think her signature is worth that much. I really hope Batmancity pulls one though! Best of luck on OTB day!

James Cameron is a brilliant director. I've heard he's hard to get along with apparently, but his success (and, he is basically the pioneer of 3D IMO) awards him a definite respect. Directors' cards should always be worth a lot more than they usually go for in my opinion.

quote:

Originally posted by rwn410:
James Cameron is a brilliant director. I've heard he's hard to get along with apparently, but his success (and, he is basically the pioneer of 3D IMO) awards him a definite respect. Directors' cards should always be worth a lot more than they usually go for in my opinion.

James Cameron may be difficult, but his work backs it up, just like Kubrick. Host Tina Fey zinged him pretty good on that widely held opinion of him at the Golden Globe Awards a few years back when his ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow was nominated for Zero Dark Thirty. But let Cameron put out a casting call for whatever he does next and it'll be a short list of people of who don't come running (well, their agents anyway).

"Titanic", "The Abyss" (unedited version only), and "Terminator" are masterpieces of their genres.

"Aliens" and "Terminator 2" were superb.

"True Lies" and "Avatar" in my view shouldn't have achieved the grosses they did based on the quality of their stories, but nevertheless, I found even those entertaining, and the 3D on "Avatar" was indeed revolutionary.

"Dark Angel" was a rare misfire from Cameron, and it would probably be the worst trading card from the things he's done to have his autograph card from (with the possible exception of Piranha 2: The Spawning") , but it's better than nothing.

Also, when those cards were made, Alba wasn't a star yet, so it wouldn't have been too hard to get autograph cards from her, especially when she found out Cameron was signing them, too. I'm sure both were just trying to promote the show. It didn't work, but we got a pair of nice souvenirs from it, at least.

As for Director signed cards, I agree with you totally, they really are undervalued in relation to cards signed by their casts, but to many collectors, you don't mean a whole lot unless you are in front of the camera.

I have a decent number of director signed cards, and I hope to add to them. I have these directors (set listed in parentheses):

Jon Favreau (Iron Man)
Robert Rodriguez (Red Sonja 35th Anniversary)
David Cronenberg (Alias)
Barry Sonnenfeld (Wild Wild West)
Frank Oz (Star Wars Attacks)
Danny Cannon (CSI)
Joe Dante (Small Soldiers)
Ron Howard (The Grinch)
Sydney Pollack (Twilight Zone)
Kevin Smith (Mallrats-signed in person)
Alan Ball (6 Feet Under)

I wish I had Tim Burton, Peter Jackson, Joss Whedon, JJ Abrams, Bryan Singer, Guillermo Del Toro,and Irvin Kershner since those do exist, but I don't have them as of yet. Brett Ratner and Joel Schumacher do have signed cards, but since one tried to kill the x-men and the other tried to kill Batman, I don't feel the need for them, haha.

There are some incredibly rare signed cards from the likes of Lucas, Spielberg, and John Carpenter out there, but I'm not holding my breath on getting any of those...

I'd love cards from some of my other directing heroes like Scorsese, Ridley Scott, the Coen Brothers, Sam Raimi, Tarantino, the Wachowskis, Christopher Nolan, Spike Jonze, Paul Thomas Anderson, Michel Gondry, David Fincher, and Paul Verhoeven, but first, someone has to make them. Fingers crossed...

quote:

Originally posted by allender:

quote:

Originally posted by chesspieceface:
I was just going by the pure numbers

If the Topps quoted ratios are right, you would get one or the other of the "big two" on average every 7.12171 boxes. .

So I have been trying to wrap my head around this and I must say that I know where your calculations are coming from and I get them also. The thing is, unless you double the ratio to 14.24342, it still makes no logical sense to me.

Think of it this way. If I have a card worth a $1 and a card worth .50, the average worth of my cards is .75. It can't be .40 because that's below the minimum value and it can't be $1.20 because that's greater than the highest value. We all know how to average things out.

The same thing seems to apply in calculating these box ratios and it only gets confusing because they being thought of as one card rather than two. If the Alba shows up at 12 boxes and the Cameron shows up at 16 boxes (I'm rounding down), how can a calculation of 1 in every 7 boxes be accurate? Seven is well below the minimum box ratio for both cards.

In seven boxes, all things being equal, you could expect to get neither card. Of course it's random selection, so anything is possible, but the idea that the average ratio supports it can't be right in actual practice. You can combine them both to get a medium average of 14 boxes for either one, but not half that again to get a box number of 7. You can't make the odds of finding either one so much better than the ratios quoted just because you have added them together.

At least that's what I think, even though I do understand your numbers. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Contrary to what is alleged, it wouldn't be the first time and it won't be the last.

It's really just a device to help one determine how much to spend for a box that has, in this case, just 2 particular cards in the entire set you are hoping to get. You split the difference on the 12 and the 16 to get 14, and if the given odds are true, there should be one Alba and one Cameron in every single stack of 14 random boxes, that is, those 2 autographs will appear as a pair in every group 14 random boxes for the entirety of the production run, on average, so you have a 1 in 7 shot at getting one or the other, again, if the given odds are true. One or the other, not both, which is how the odds for one or the other is 1 in 7.

This lets us know that if it was a 14,000 box hobby run, there should be 500 of each of the Cameron and Alba autos (although in reality something like 550 Albas and 450 Camerons since hers were 1 in 12 and his were 1 in 16).

It's not remarkable that Alba would've signed that many (or even more, if asked) cards, she was so early in her career. I'm fairly sure the Cameron sig would've been the more sought after autograph while the set was first live. Clearly that has changed as the Alba seems to be at least 3-4 times more valuable these days.

I know it's tricky, but you have to think of the odds on these as "concurrent" as opposed to "consecutive", like all of the packs are in one big pile, and every time you pull 36 packs out seven different times and open those, there will be either an Alba or Cameron, on average, not both, just one.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: chesspieceface,

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:
In seven boxes, all things being equal, you could expect to get neither card.

Heh, in seven, I would expect BOTH cards, but I've always been one of those annoying "glass-half-full" types.

Good discussion, but really, it's the very meaning of academic as who is ever going to have seven (or fourteen!) sealed boxes of these to open all at once? It's tough enough to get one!

Not only that you couldn't find that many sealed boxes, but if you could, the total cost would be more than the card you seek. All academic as you say CPF.

I was surprised by the number of Alba and Cameron autographs believed to be released in Dark Angel. I never really looked for either of them as it wasn't anything I wanted, I just rarely came across either one online, so I assumed them to be much more limited.

Anyway, as far as the Cameron discussion goes, I think the reason for the card not being worth more is that he does not come across as likeable. Simple as that. He is possibly the best modern film director and his scientific advancements in underwater research and in advancing CGI in filmmaking is unmatched. Peter Jackson is probably the closest rival, but I would give it to Cameron as an inventor.

Yet people don't have to listen to Cameron very long before he begins to wear a bit thin. If you are going to spend a lot of money on an autograph, it must be someone you admire for some reason. Maybe it's jealousy, but it seems like not even Cameron's peers admire him, unless they work for him.

I was curious about that, too, Raven, so I checked Worthpoint and there were about 40 Albas that popped up there, and it does seem to be more plentiful than the Cameron.

It is easy to see some of the attraction of that card now, especially to her fans. It's got nice pictures on the front and back, it's on-card signed, and every signature I saw had all the letters of both of her names clearly delineated. It is a sharp card. I really hope batmancity can beat the odds and find one when the time comes.

Well we are going very far from this topic now and I like it.

I didn't know that Worthpoint could be used for trading cards and I never heard a card collector or dealer say they referred to it. Since it's a subscription thing I haven't looked at it either, just thought it was for antique shoppers.

Is it worth paying the fee for card pricing or does it include only certain cards?

Sure, it's a great reference, and you can browse items free going back 10 years or more, most with pictures, pretty much any item, including cards. Why, some of my best work is there, but now copyrighted by Worthpoint, haha. Suffice it say, I have no problem borrowing back my own work when I need it. It only costs to see the actual selling price, so it's up to you if that's worth paying for that.

Good to know, thanks.

I bought 2 cases of Dark Angel when it came out, and they were 8 box cases.

I got a James Cameron in both cases, and other dealers who opened them said they either got a Cameron or Alba, but not both in an eight box case.

Dave.

Thank you for that, some great info.
I looked at the NSU box breakdowns for this, and there were only about 12 different ones shown, but an Alba and a few Camerons were pulled. Granted, people are more likely to only post results from better boxes. There were also a pretty high % of breakdowns that showed two autos per box, usually the easy ones, but not always. We've seen Topps up the "hit" count sometimes when pre-orders weren't great (Star Wars Gal 6 and Indiana Jones Masterpieces, most notbly), so maybe the same thing happened with this set.
Do you remember getting two autos in any of the boxes from your cases, Blue Horseshoe?