Not exactly, but we might be talking about different things. Try it this way . . .

You have signed items from NotLD, some may be on cards, some on photos, some on letters, some on index cards, some on scraps of paper.

Maybe you can sell those cards and photos, if you can find someone who is also a fan. Maybe they will ask you to provide authentication. But notes, index cards and scraps of paper are worth practically nothing. Even if the party might be deceased.

Now a card company comes along and offers you a couple of bucks for these items that you can't sell to anyone else. They make a licensed product, mount the signatures as limited cuts, which they now guarantee as authenticate, and you have a premium hit that collectors will pay good money to get. If the actor is deceased, it might really be worth something.

Just using NotLD for your example, probably would be a lot bigger title than that. If I were to pull a cut signature out of any product I would be very happy also. It would probably be one of the few cards I would consider selling right away if it had any big value, just because I have such little respect for the process of making cut signature cards. I think collectors get sold a bill of goods with a cut, but especially if the signer is a living person. Hope that makes more sense.

In the State of New Jersey, for scratch off lottery tickets, the lottery web site will show what large prizes have been won for each type of ticket. This is to make things fair for the consumer. If you are thinking of buying a ticket with a grand prize of 1 Million Dollars for 5 or 10 dollars, you can check beforehand to see if all the million dollar tickets have already been sold, and then decide if you still want to go after the lesser prizes.

Wonder how this would affect card collecting? Would the average consume be willing to pay $100.00 / box if you knew that all of the high end hits were already found. Also, would the price of sealed old boxes drop if all of a sudden you see on a Manufacturer's site that all of the High end or Shatner or Nemoy Autos have been found?

This is probably why the Manufacturers don't like to disclose print runs and exact number of autographs for a set.

And this information could hurt distributors as well. If autos and other high end 1/1 cards were tracked, the cost of old boxes could potentially could drop dramatically as things were updated.

Basicly buying a box of cards is like playing the lottery, but you need to do your own research instead of having it done by the manufacture, and them make your decision of if you think the price justifies the potential reward

Good talking points AWR and some valid comparisons.

This topic of what is and isn't a lottery was aired out in sports cards many years ago, when certain rookie cards in super premium products first started to get thousands of dollars on the secondary market.

Trading cards are not, and should not, be regarded as a lottery. It is not gambling, although it may be an obsession to some people. Card manufacturers, while well aware of card values on the open market, will say all cards in specific classes are essentially the same. Any base card is as good as another base card. Any autograph may not be as good as another if the production numbers are different, but in terms of being a premium hit, they are the same to the maker. When you hear that a missing hit will be redeemed by a hit of equal value, that may not mean what you think. The hit will be equal, but the value may not be comparable.

But seriously, no one should ever buy a box or case of non-sport cards expecting to find something that will re-sell for a fortune. Who even thought that non-sport cards would ever have these types of expensive cards? And non-sport is still not on a par with sports cards, where un-signed limited rookie cards can still go for big bucks. And where certain player driven base cards may be in good demand.

In other words, it doesn't have to be a premium hit in sports cards to get good money, but it does have to be an autograph or sketch or cut signature or relic in non-sport to get the high prices.

So no, don't expect to find that big hit and don't buy for the gamble, only buy because you want the cards. And when the box SRP is marked up just like you are going to get that golden ticket inside, when you know your chances are slim, walk away. Go buy a lottery ticket, its cheaper.

I pulled a 1/1 Kayanan original art in one of the LotR sets. Basically, the 6 sketch cards that were used for one of the insert sets were themselves inserted in packs. I really liked the card but couldn't justify keeping it.

If you don't count printing plates I pulled my first 1/1 yesterday. The John Simm as The Master 1/1 from the Doctor Who Signature 2018. Being a parallel it's not like pulling a one only cut signature but I was still very happy.

How in the world did Leaf acquire something signed by Lee Harvey Oswald ? It's not as if he was in any way famous before Nov 22, 1963, so what could have possibly existed with his signature on it that was legit ? Did his wife sell his personal items ?

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:
Back in 2011 Leaf produced a very controversial 1/1 card for Pop Century. It was actually a "booklet" that had cut signatures of both JFK and Lee Harvey Oswald, as well as a piece of the leather seat from the assassination limo. Some people, including myself, thought it in really poor taste. But there is a huge market for anything associated with JFK, so this was a big deal.

The card was pack pulled by a dealer and promptly sold, I believe on eBay. The price was over 10K. Some years ago Leaf was trying to locate the card, probably for some promotion. They were estimating that the value at that time might be over 25K. As far as I know it didn't publicly surface again.

So the idea that card makers are going to be able to trace these valuable 1/1s could only happen if they were redemptions that had to be signed for in order to be received and that public disclosure would be part of the redemption agreement. Much like certain US States force big lottery winners to appear in public in order to claim their money prizes.

Short of that, and we are not getting that, you have to trust that big ticket items are indeed pack inserted because, for a variety of reasons, some card collectors won't shout it from the roof tops.

Something from his banking I would of though. No plastic in them days just cheques and withdrawal slips all signed.

quote:

Originally posted by Tommy C:
How in the world did Leaf acquire something signed by Lee Harvey Oswald ? It's not as if he was in any way famous before Nov 22, 1963, so what could have possibly existed with his signature on it that was legit ? Did his wife sell his personal items ?

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:
Back in 2011 Leaf produced a very controversial 1/1 card for Pop Century. It was actually a "booklet" that had cut signatures of both JFK and Lee Harvey Oswald, as well as a piece of the leather seat from the assassination limo. Some people, including myself, thought it in really poor taste. But there is a huge market for anything associated with JFK, so this was a big deal.

The card was pack pulled by a dealer and promptly sold, I believe on eBay. The price was over 10K. Some years ago Leaf was trying to locate the card, probably for some promotion. They were estimating that the value at that time might be over 25K. As far as I know it didn't publicly surface again.

So the idea that card makers are going to be able to trace these valuable 1/1s could only happen if they were redemptions that had to be signed for in order to be received and that public disclosure would be part of the redemption agreement. Much like certain US States force big lottery winners to appear in public in order to claim their money prizes.

Short of that, and we are not getting that, you have to trust that big ticket items are indeed pack inserted because, for a variety of reasons, some card collectors won't shout it from the roof tops.

quote:

Originally posted by Tommy C:
How in the world did Leaf acquire something signed by Lee Harvey Oswald ? It's not as if he was in any way famous before Nov 22, 1963, so what could have possibly existed with his signature on it that was legit ? Did his wife sell his personal items ?

[/QUOTE]

No idea where Leaf got it, but if you think about it, people probably had their signatures on way more things back then than today. Everything is printed now. Schools aren't even teaching script in some places.

School records, DMV, government agencies, employment files, bank, car dealerships, hand written letters, there are a host of places he could have left signed paperwork. And you just know that someone thought to gather it up and maybe make some money on it. There is a market for the infamous too unfortunately.

Just came across this - As a follow up to my lottery analogy

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/1...ery-practice-of.html

Should card companies do the same thing by posting all the big hits

quote:

Originally posted by AWR:
Wonder how this would affect card collecting? Would the average consume be willing to pay $100.00 / box if you knew that all of the high end hits were already found. Also, would the price of sealed old boxes drop if all of a sudden you see on a Manufacturer's site that all of the High end or Shatner or Nemoy Autos have been found?

I frequent another forum where there are several hardcore Star Wars collectors. Someone there has a tracker of all the 1/1s pulled from the Stellar Signatures release. They have already been talking about seeing a decline in purchases after certain ones (like Harrison Ford or the gal that plays Rey) were pulled.

So yes, collectors notice, but those are dedicated collectors, not the average person who is buying a $20 blaster from Target. That is also one online forum, which is such a small percentage of the collector base as a whole.

Point being, the average collector would not care if the Harrison Ford 1/1s are all pulled, but the average collector is not buying a product one case at a time, either.

quote:

Originally posted by weasel-king:

quote:

Originally posted by AWR:
Wonder how this would affect card collecting? Would the average consume be willing to pay $100.00 / box if you knew that all of the high end hits were already found. Also, would the price of sealed old boxes drop if all of a sudden you see on a Manufacturer's site that all of the High end or Shatner or Nemoy Autos have been found?

I frequent another forum where there are several hardcore Star Wars collectors. Someone there has a tracker of all the 1/1s pulled from the Stellar Signatures release. They have already been talking about seeing a decline in purchases after certain ones (like Harrison Ford or the gal that plays Rey) were pulled.

So yes, collectors notice, but those are dedicated collectors, not the average person who is buying a $20 blaster from Target. That is also one online forum, which is such a small percentage of the collector base as a whole.

Point being, the average collector would not care if the Harrison Ford 1/1s are all pulled, but the average collector is not buying a product one case at a time, either.

I agree with your point, I would not care if the 1/1 Harrison Ford autograph were pulled because I would not be expecting to find it myself anyway. However we are talking about the Stellar Signatures Ford and that had to bought as a pre-packaged set for how much? Over $5,000 or something like that the last I heard. That is not "average" card collector territory to begin with. I'm not worried if its been pulled because I can't touch that product.

I think we have to clarify what is an "average" collector, because to me, all we are really talking about is the ability to throw money around without caring about the risk of not getting value. "Average" card collectors can be hard core collectors. "Average" card collectors can have great knowledge in the various sectors/titles/types of trading cards. "Average" card collectors may not want retail cards. "Average" card collectors spend a good deal of money on cards, or at least they did. The 'average" collector may in fact be a dedicated card collector. "Average" card collectors are the base that holds this hobby's house of cards together.

The "advanced" collector may or may not be any of those things, but he/she can afford Stellar Signatures and may care if the Ford has been pulled. They can buy premium factory sets or cases if they choose. I'm sure they want value too, but that means pulling really big cards.

So I guess may point is, whether or not you care about high end cards or 1/1s being pulled is less a matter of "average" vs. "advanced" collector, as its just a matter of disposable income.

It's not like those 1/1 Ford cards were ever in there in the first place. They are still at the Topps office.