I walked into a discussion the other day regarding certain expensive certified autograph cards. It started with Johnny Depp, and whether or not his current bad publicity will have any effect on the value of his Charlie and the Chocolate Factory card. Than it went to other bigger autos, like Routh for Superman and Fox for Transformers, which have little to do with bad publicity, but all to do with bad movies. Neither one became the mega star their autograph value would indicate, although at least Fox is still starring in movies, even if it is with Ninja Turtles.

My opinion is that Depp won't lose his card demand because of what he may or may not have done, he was always an edgy guy and people admired it. However if he keeps making rotten movies, and he is on a streak right now, that alone should bring down his card's value, which is listed at $700.

Routh and Fox values shouldn't still be where they are now and I wonder if anyone is really buying their cards at the listed prices? The cards themselves are fairly limited, but they could drop 50% off from the $435 and $400 listed and I still wouldn't think they are worth it.

So what's your opinion on these and others?

Can you think of any formerly expensive autograph cards that took a tumble because the signer fell from grace or fizzled out?

Or is a high priced autograph bullet proof because there will always be enough demand for a rare card and the set, regardless of what the signer does later on?

With the exception of O. J. Simpson of course. His certified autographed sports cards are still being offered for around $60, well below their highs before and even during the trial, but dealers tell me that they are virtually untouchable, as no one is buying. So I guess there is a point where demand can just stop.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Raven,

Depp's is on-card and that helps keep it's value up, I think. He's also made enough fan favorite movies that I think he'll always have a following. He does need a hit, though, I agree. Even this latest Alice is doing underwhelming numbers, after the original was a massive worldwide hit. (Wonder if losing Tim Burton hurt that one?).

There's another "Pirates" in the pipeline. It'll be interesting to see the effect, if any, of this messy divorce and the attendant publicity on that one.
I'd heard Marvel considered Depp for Dr. Strange, although I don't know if there's truth to that, but considering he's had his biggest hits for Disney, you'd think they would want to get him into the Marvel Cinematic Universe (or even the Star Wars Universe). If he'd been reluctant to do that before, he might want to look into now, to circle the wagons around his career, as it were.

look at the ryan Reynolds it was a £30 card and widely available now you cant
touch it for several hundred £ . you never can tell . which way the market will jump.
I see there have been a grab at king kong autos for Jaimie bell since he was linked to bond 007
.

quote:

Originally posted by vampy:
look at the ryan Reynolds it was a £30 card and widely available now you cant
touch it for several hundred £ . you never can tell . which way the market will jump.
I see there have been a grab at king kong autos for Jaimie bell since he was linked to bond 007
.

Yeah that's true, it can go the other way, just not as often and it's usually with a young star doing a minor role in something. A certified autograph card from anyone who looks like they will be big comes out of gate in 3 figures, in that regard non-sport is following the example of sports cards. Prized rookie cards are expensive because of the potential, while established players decrease in value because they have already had their HOF careers. It sounds crazy, but new is always better than old, at least until new has a Tommy John surgery and can't throw above 90.

There are sleepers, but they are really hard to find compared to the ones that arrive at peak and just decline afterwards.

Anyway, Daisy Ridley is a great example of a brand new name that is very expensive because of potential and Star Wars. In coming years her prices will have more room to fall than to grow, but she could turn into Harrison Ford too.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:
My opinion is that Depp won't lose his card demand because of what he may or may not have done, he was always an edgy guy and people admired it. However if he keeps making rotten movies, and he is on a streak right now, that alone should bring down his card's value that alone should bring down his card's value, which is listed at $700.

[...]

With the exception of O. J. Simpson of course. His certified autographed sports cards are still being offered for around $60, well below their highs before and even during the trial, but dealers tell me that they are virtually untouchable, as no one is buying. So I guess there is a point where demand can just stop.

I think you're being far to literal Raven. Whether he stars in more good/bad movies it is is almost irrelevant at this point. He will always be Edward Scissorhands. He will always be Captain Jack Sparrow. He is a true A-lister. And to a degree, people will always adore him for what he had done, even if what comes later pales in comparison. His only on-card auto is likely to be the only one there will ever be, so will always command very strong money regardless.

Whether all this Amber Heard stuff is true or not, I think unless famous people are involved with something as truly shocking/scandalous as the O.J. example, they will still have their fans. Whether right or wrong I don't think it will have much effect on the value of a super rare trading card.

quote:

Originally posted by X:

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:
My opinion is that Depp won't lose his card demand because of what he may or may not have done, he was always an edgy guy and people admired it. However if he keeps making rotten movies, and he is on a streak right now, that alone should bring down his card's value that alone should bring down his card's value, which is listed at $700.

[...]

With the exception of O. J. Simpson of course. His certified autographed sports cards are still being offered for around $60, well below their highs before and even during the trial, but dealers tell me that they are virtually untouchable, as no one is buying. So I guess there is a point where demand can just stop.

I think you're being far to literal Raven. Whether he stars in more good/bad movies it is is almost irrelevant at this point. He will always be Edward Scissorhands. He will always be Captain Jack Sparrow. He is a true A-lister. And to a degree, people will always adore him for what he had done, even if what comes later pales in comparison. His only on-card auto is likely to be the only one there will ever be, so will always command very strong money regardless.

Whether all this Amber Heard stuff is true or not, I think unless famous people are involved with something as truly shocking/scandalous as the O.J. example, they will still have their fans. Whether right or wrong I don't think it will have much effect on the value of a super rare trading card.

Oh I think you are going to have to explain what you mean by "being far to literal" and why you edited my beginning comments about Depp to my ending comments about Simpson. I was in no way comparing the two men and it looks like you are saying I was by cutting it up that way.

Please go back to the original post and see that my comment on Simpson was totally separate and was made just to say that there can be an exception and someone can become so infamous that demand flat lines. Depp's domestic dust up, whatever it is, is not going to ruin him.

His choice of crappy movies coupled with his excessive lifestyle might make him a lot less bankable as a star performer though. A lot is riding on the new Pirates movie for him in terms of being in demand for future projects. He needs to make a comeback very soon.

As to his Charlie card, despite his Edward and Captain Jack, that autograph card is of neither one. It's from a pretty bad movie in fact. I agree that it may be his only certified card, but is it worth $700 if he doesn't stay a top actor and wouldn't that have to weakened demand enough to effect price? Certainly it won't ever go up if he plods along as he has been.

Remember the immortal words of The Entertainer . . .

"I may have been your champion, I may have won your hearts, but I know the game, you'll forget my name and I won't be here in another year if I don't stay on the charts. Wooo."

I trimmed it for length and and key points as I saw them, nothing more. I kept the OJ bit because I think that sort of extreme controversy is pretty much the only sort of thing that would turn collectors away from Depp, or whoever. But I've already said that.

He's already done plenty of crappy movies, including the Charlie and the Chocolate Factory as you say. Megan Fox was always a **** actress and always will be a **** actress, and doesn't star in great movies, but has that ever stopped her card being expensive?

IMO "too literal" as in you said more poor movies from him = it should bring down the card's value. You're applying a very literal, and logical, real world argument to an illogical and niche hobby...

...speaking of films etc. the Bond producers are apparently offering Craig £60m+ to do two more Bond pictures and he is an acclaimed actor and always has been. Shouldn't his lastest Bond card, a 9-case incentive no less, sell for more than £100 even if it is a 'repeat'? Maybe. Maybe not.

I'm just saying that what Hollywood thinks of how bankable Depp is these days, or what Joe public think of his movies doesn't necessarily have much to do with what card collectors spend random amounts of money on.

quote:

Originally posted by X:
He's already done plenty of crappy movies, including the Charlie and the Chocolate Factory as you say. Megan Fox was always a **** actress and always will be a **** actress, and doesn't star in great movies, but has that ever stopped her card being expensive?

IMO "too literal" as in you said more poor movies from him = it should bring down the card's value. You're applying a very literal, and logical, real world argument to an illogical and niche hobby....

Got it, I don't mind being called too logical, and you're right, logic can put you on the wrong track.

As for Fox, never should her autograph card be on the same level as "A" actors, but she's a Babe and her talent lies elsewhere.

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Originally posted by Raven:
As for Fox, never should her autograph card be on the same level as "A" actors, but she's a Babe and her talent lies elsewhere.

In my opinion the same thing can be said about Jessica Alba at this point. I may not have thought so initially, but it's been 14 years now since Dark Angel and seriously, what has she accomplished to justify her autograph selling for $700?

Craig is basically 2 for 4 as Bond now, not a terrible average, but boy, this next installment, should he return, will go a long way towards determining his place in the 007 pantheon. Should he not return and end on the sour note that was "Spectre", I think I'd only rank him ahead of Dalton and Lazenby. He does have a few other superb movies and performances under his belt (Layer Cake, Dragon Tattoo, Munich) and probably has a few more in him, so that autograph should always have some interest, and that it's on-card certainly helps.

quote:

Originally posted by Logan:
In my opinion the same thing can be said about Jessica Alba at this point. I may not have thought so initially, but it's been 14 years now since Dark Angel and seriously, what has she accomplished to justify her autograph selling for $700?

Umm, appearing fully clothed in the two "Sin City" movies despite having been cast as a famously and often naked character from the comic series?

quote:

Originally posted by X:

...speaking of films etc. the Bond producers are apparently offering Craig £60m+ to do two more Bond pictures and he is an acclaimed actor and always has been. Shouldn't his lastest Bond card, a 9-case incentive no less, sell for more than £100 even if it is a 'repeat'? Maybe. Maybe not.

I can think of three reasons why that incentive card is not getting the interest or price that maybe it should be getting by past sales.

The repeat aspect of it is only the #2 reason to me. With all important signers, the first time they do a certified autograph card collectors get excited. It's their only one, it may be their last one, and it probably has a low print run. Once the signer reappears again, while it's not the same card, it does increase the supply of certified autographs. Demand and pricing may remain the same, but as more products with that signer come out, people now have options. They also know that there is no guarantee how many future certified autographs there will be. Not only does demand start to be satisfied by the increasing supply, but prices began to decrease because the lower prices will attract more buyers. First autograph cards will always be prized, but even those values will soften up.

Craig autos have appeared in several Bond products now, but to me, the more compelling reason why this 9-case incentive is on a par with his regular autographs is because the card is not as attractive. That's my #1 reason, the other cards look better. I know RA wanted a different format for the incentive cards and it came up with the all-black background and gold or silver inked signatures. I never liked them for the same reason I don't ever like using gold or silver pens period. The strokes are uneven, they chip, they streak and the signers don't know how to use them. I saw a silver Dench on ebay that looked like it was disappearing and the RA web site image of the Dench is thick and blotchy. The best reason to not buy an autograph card is because you don't like what it looks like and you can get a better one. Unfortunately RA has already committed to this style on their limited cards.

Finally, 3rd and last reason for the cheaper price, master set builders have become increasing rare. It's not just because of the prohibited prices. It's also because some cards are so short no more than a few people can ever grab them. Who is more inclined to feel that they must own a 9-case incentive than someone who must have the whole master run? As those collectors have gotten discouraged and dropped out, so goes the demand for cards that only hard core collectors would ever really need. Without a strong demand, limited supply is irrelevant. Plenty of 1/5s, 1/10s and even 1/1s go begging because no one is interested. These silver and gold incentives will always have a following, but since that following is smaller and more discerning, don't be surprised that they are not selling as well or for as much as before in MHO.

I would agree with Raven. As Master sets get harder and harder to complete, the super rare incentive cards, as well as 1/10, 1/5, or 1/1 parallels will start to lose there value.

Because of the rarity and cost, the number of people who can obtain a master set decreases. Once they get the cards, the extras that become available are not really sought after by the average collector like myself (Why would I want one 1/1 Parallel card of a set that there is no way I would ever be able to collect) It may be a nice card, very rare, but has no demand so the price starts to drop. But because it cost so much to get in the 1st place, the seller cant justify selling it at a huge loss, so they slowly drop the price looking for point where somebody thinks its worth the cost. Time will tell to see what the values of some of these cards ends up being

quote:

Originally posted by chesspieceface:

quote:

Originally posted by Logan:
In my opinion the same thing can be said about Jessica Alba at this point. I may not have thought so initially, but it's been 14 years now since Dark Angel and seriously, what has she accomplished to justify her autograph selling for $700?

Umm, appearing fully clothed in the two "Sin City" movies despite having been cast as a famously and often naked character from the comic series?

Did you see the recent article that Alba is like the 4th wealthiest female movie star in the world ? Apparently she makes hundreds of millions from her organic products company. Much more so than movies !

Interesting. Those "lifestyle" brands can be very lucrative. I know singer Jessica Simpson has done very well with hers, as has Gwyneth Paltrow.

According to ABC News, the only actresses with more money than Alba are Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Sandra Bullock, and Jami Gertz (as her husband is a billion dollar financier who also owns a major sports team)

quote:

Originally posted by chesspieceface:
Craig is basically 2 for 4 as Bond now, not a terrible average, but boy, this next installment, should he return, will go a long way towards determining his place in the 007 pantheon. Should he not return and end on the sour note that was "Spectre", I think I'd only rank him ahead of Dalton and Lazenby. He does have a few other superb movies and performances under his belt (Layer Cake, Dragon Tattoo, Munich) and probably has a few more in him, so that autograph should always have some interest, and that it's on-card certainly helps.

Craig certainly took bond to the next level and I will respect his place for that. The unfortunate problem with the bond series is that the villains were still left in these overbearing comic book style roles. They did not advance in character quality as James did. This is why Spectre sucked so bad. I do hope that he holds on for number 25 and that it is a pure balls to the wall action movie.

I know that Thunderbirds was a terrible movie, but I don't think I will ever understand the Ben Kingsley autograph selling regularly for $29.

I guess it's good for one thing...I now have three of them.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

quote:

Originally posted by X:

...speaking of films etc. the Bond producers are apparently offering Craig £60m+ to do two more Bond pictures and he is an acclaimed actor and always has been. Shouldn't his lastest Bond card, a 9-case incentive no less, sell for more than £100 even if it is a 'repeat'? Maybe. Maybe not.

I can think of three reasons why that incentive card is not getting the interest or price that maybe it should be getting by past sales.

I think you're 3 reasons are probably absolutely correct, but wasn't the whole point of this thread that Hollywood bankability and star reputation should equal a better price? Craig has both but his price is far lower than Depp, which goes back to my point that a card's value pretty much comes down to it's value/rarity as a card/collectible (unless they do an OJ).

quote:

Originally posted by X:
I think you're 3 reasons are probably absolutely correct, but wasn't the whole point of this thread that Hollywood bankability and star reputation should equal a better price? Craig has both but his price is far lower than Depp, which goes back to my point that a card's value pretty much comes down to it's value/rarity as a card/collectible (unless they do an OJ).

Well no, not really. The topic veered off because you brought up the Craig autograph card, which is fine, topics should generate other ideas.

What I originally talking about was autograph cards that list very high and the things that might cause it to come down in value, such as the signer's bad behavior or poor movie choices.

You brought up Craig as a card you felt should be pricing higher than it is and why it is not such a big autograph card. That is different than a $700 card holding or not holding it's value.

But I love talking about all aspects of certified autograph cards, so I don't care what direction the conversation goes in.