Hey all,

There's a question which has been bending in my mind for a while now.

I don't primarily go after cards for money, but if I spend a lot I just want to make sure I won't lose a lot if for whatever reason I part with the card.

Let's say there are 2 identical rare cards. One is 6/10, the other is 9.5/10. If the values of these increase over time will the price difference always be proportional? Or will the better condition one possibility skyrocket in value from the others?

I owned an 80's rookie card once, worth under $100. Tried selling it and the buyer wouldn't even take it period because of its 7/10 condition.

What are your experiences with this?
Thanks for your time.

In the sports card world condition means everything. In the non-sport world, condition matters less. Collectors here still want their cards in the best condition possible, but usually don't put as much of a premium on high grade cards as sports collectors do. In fact many collectors here shy away from professionally graded cards altogether simply because they want to be able to touch and feel the cards for themselves and display them in sheets and binders without having them encased in a "plastic coffin". That's modern non-sport cards where all cards are expected to be NM-MT or better coming right out of the pack. Vintage non-sport cards are a bit different and can resemble sports cards depending on the set. The 1959 Fleer Three Stooges set comes to mind. Those cards are basically treated the same as sports where the condition means quite a lot and higher grades can result in huge jumps in value.

I see. Would a non-sports collector care if, for instance the pen used for a signature was low on ink?
A bold line would feel better even from an aesthetic standpoint, would it not? Or are we jumping into firm subjectivity?

Yes there are a lot collectors who would seek out the perfect autograph with a bold signature that doesn't run off the card/sticker, but I also think there are just as many collectors who would happily take the cheapest example they can afford, regardless of signature quality. Just owning the card is enough for them. The Christina Aguilera autograph we were talking about in another thread - on every one of her cards her signature is very streaky and would not grade well, but that shouldn't deter anyone who wants one from buying it. That's just how she signed and the pen she used.

I would say that in the vast majority of the cases in modern non sports cards you will never get back the money you spend on them. Most cards will go down in value and need to be sold off cheap and that's only if you can find anybody who wants them.

It's a deep subject with a lot of nuance and room for personal opinion. You are actually bringing up two subjects in this conversation. The first is basic card condition, or specifically a grading difference. The second is signature quality on I assume a certified autograph card. They are somewhat surprisingly not the same thing, at least not to me as a certified autograph card collector.

I think Logan ran down the grading pretty well. It is more important in the sports card world. When you cited your example of an 80's rookie grading 7, I take that to be a sports card or you wouldn't call it a rookie. With the value, I'm thinking maybe a Mattingly or a Ripken, someone on that level. I've got them myself and I can tell you that you should have sold them prior to 1995. The bottom has fallen out on those star cards of the 80's and 90's because of the overproduction. Even the 70's are not wanted, pre 70's only, maybe.

Now a graded 7 on an 80's rookie is going nowhere. Your example of comparing a 6 to a 9.5 on a rare card is less clear because you don't state if the card is vintage. If its a very old card and its rare, a 6 might sell. However that 9.5 will always have a proportional higher price simply because its a better condition card. It would be pretty hard to get that high a grade on a vintage card though.

In modern cards, those collectors that insist on grading will not touch anything less than a 9. Thankfully non-sport card collectors have not taken to grading and I for one find that very sensible. To me, you should consider grading only when there is a question regarding the authenticity of a card because of known counterfeiting or if the card value is extremely high and you are thinking of selling. If you don't intend to ever sell, who are you grading it for?

Now to the certified autograph part, a separate matter. As an autograph card collector, the signature means more to me than the card. I certainly care about the condition of the card and want the best one possible, but not if it has a sub-par autograph. I am speaking of quality now, not about how good or bad someone may write their name. If the autograph is streaky, or blotchy, or off the sticker, or out of the area it should be in, or too light, or fill in whatever else bothers you, then I don't want it regardless if its on a pristine card.

When certified autograph cards are graded, the grading does not even consider the autograph quality unless it is specified. So you have to watch that and look for it to be recorded. I have seen cards with fake autographs graded because no one was paid to authenticate the signature and no one did. I think the grading services do a better job of it now, only because there were so many complaints on older stuff that is still out there.

I'll stop now because, having collected sports cards and now sticking to non-sport for a long time, I could ramble on and on. You learn the most from your mistakes and I have made many mistakes.

quote:

Originally posted by Logan:
Yes there are a lot collectors who would seek out the perfect autograph with a bold signature that doesn't run off the card/sticker, but I also think there are just as many collectors who would happily take the cheapest example they can afford, regardless of signature quality.

On this point I am not sure I would agree with you, although you did say many, not most.

To me the signature quality is absolutely the most important factor. I would not buy a certified autograph card with a sub-par signature even if its discounted and is a bargain. I would always see the defect, be it streaking, blotching, smearing, too light, off the spot, whatever. I would never be happy with it just because it was a few dollars less.

Now I do agree wholeheartedly that you should get the cheapest example available when you are only interested in acquiring a genuine autograph of somebody. I have said this many times before, I don't understand why you would buy a $200 autograph in some super-premium product when the same signer is in another product and the autograph card is $40. I get it if you only want a certain role pictured, but even then there are generally big swings in prices between products.

What it comes down to is which do you value more, the card or the signature? If its the card or maybe just collecting the product even, perhaps you don't mind a slightly wonky autograph to save a few bucks. But if its the signature, it has to be near perfect and the exact card doesn't matter so long as it is licensed and the signature is certified.

I would have no problem buying a certified card that had a dinged corner and a perfect signature, but I still would ask for a discount anyway.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:
To me the signature quality is absolutely the most important factor. I would not buy a certified autograph card with a sub-par signature even if its discounted and is a bargain. I would always see the defect, be it streaking, blotching, smearing, too light, off the spot, whatever. I would never be happy with it just because it was a few dollars less.

I agree with you. When I'm buying, I always value the quality of the signature, and signature variants especially, over card condition. But I try to find both - a good signature and a mint card if I could. Even if it means I have to overpay some. I was speaking from my experiences browsing and selling on eBay. It's surprising how many times I see an autograph card with a subpar signature sell before a higher quality example just because it's a few dollars less. And I'm not talking a substantial price difference, just a small amount. It tells me there are a large segment of collectors who just look for the cheapest example they can find. I guess if you're collecting on a limited budget (like almost all of us are) you can't really blame them.

quote:

Originally posted by Logan:

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:
To me the signature quality is absolutely the most important factor. I would not buy a certified autograph card with a sub-par signature even if its discounted and is a bargain. I would always see the defect, be it streaking, blotching, smearing, too light, off the spot, whatever. I would never be happy with it just because it was a few dollars less.

I agree with you. When I'm buying, I always value the quality of the signature, and signature variants especially, over card condition. But I try to find both - a good signature and a mint card if I could. Even if it means I have to overpay some. I was speaking from my experiences browsing and selling on eBay. It's surprising how many times I see an autograph card with a subpar signature sell before a higher quality example just because it's a few dollars less. And I'm not talking a substantial price difference, just a small amount. It tells me there are a large segment of collectors who just look for the cheapest example they can find. I guess if you're collecting on a limited budget (like almost all of us are) you can't really blame them.

Fair enough. I don't spend a lot of time on eBay these days and if I don't like a signature I don't bother tracking it anyhow, so I'll take your word that they are selling anyway. It just seems like something they shouldn't put much money into. Then again, it may be collectors that are only interested in acquiring that card product, so the signature is less important.

Reminds me of an old story. I knew a dealer who sold in-person signed cards. Many were genuine, but some were obviously not. Many of the obviously not were bigger stars. One day I was in a mood and told him you know that autograph is a fake, right? He said he wasn't sure, he bought it from someone. I said well it's a fake. He said well I don't know that and I'm only asking $20, it should cost 4 times that, so its a bargain.

No, its a fake, and any buyer just threw away $20.

True story from the good old days before certified autograph cards started to appear as guaranteed hits.

Now I'm not saying sub-par certified autographs should be compared to fakes, but there is a reason why they may be a bargain and you will never get full value or have as much demand for a card that has a defect in the signature. So if you are willing to buy sub-par autographs be sure you are getting it cheap enough, or you are throwing away your money, even if its less money lost.

Yeah, Raven and Logan have pretty much covered it. I would only add that I have seen collectors place ads for higher-grade cards of specific sets more often in the past couple of years. Not long ago, there was an article elsewhere about graded 1976 Topps Star Trek cards. So, there seems to be a growing interest in graded non-sport even more recent than 60's cards though the general feeling for vintage cards still seems to be "as long as I have complete set with maybe a couple of cards that might be upgraded, I'm happy."

I have also noticed that some sellers are offering some graded promos/product premiums for maybe five times the high end of their value as if having them graded is some kind of desired premium in itself. The cards are often lesser-seen so the seller knows something about non-sport but still only gambling on reeling the collector who both wants that card to complete a set and doesn't care about the price. Even collectors not sweating the rent aren't going to pay through the nose for anything they'd only like to get.

This is an interesting discussion w/good observations. I like a clear on-card autograph signature (or sqiggle if thats the signer's norm)with no smudges and no truncation. Also I prefer black or dk blue ink since I think the other colors will fade out. If those conditions are met, I'd choose to pay more for that superior card over a cheaper example.

quote:

With the value, I'm thinking maybe a Mattingly or a Ripken, someone on that level. I've got them myself and I can tell you that you should have sold them prior to 1995.

Patrick Ewing from that 87 Fleer set.

Also hate to break it to you but I was only a year old in 1995 lol

Also took in the info from multiple posters here... I went with the better sig in better condition. My eventual grandchildren will cherish it lol

quote:

Originally posted by mmf49:

quote:

With the value, I'm thinking maybe a Mattingly or a Ripken, someone on that level. I've got them myself and I can tell you that you should have sold them prior to 1995.

Patrick Ewing from that 87 Fleer set.

Also hate to break it to you but I was only a year old in 1995 lol

Different sport, but Ewing would be in the same boat. Knick superstar very hot at the beginning of his career with good priced cards and then they went down. The rookie year would still be the best issue, but little demand now and no demand at all for a 7. But 80's basketball cards are a little better than 80's baseball in terms of fewer cards made for a smaller market. Now if it were a Jordan rookie in high grade, that held up better.

And yes, I do hate you.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

In modern cards, those collectors that insist on grading will not touch anything less than a 9. Thankfully non-sport card collectors have not taken to grading and I for one find that very sensible. To me, you should consider grading only when there is a question regarding the authenticity of a card because of known counterfeiting or if the card value is extremely high and you are thinking of selling. If you don't intend to ever sell, who are you grading it for?

This sums up the whole grading issue. Anything produced after the entire collecting community started shoving their cards (or comics) into protective pages or boxes is a waste of money as far as grading is concerned. When you add their convoluted system of tiered price justification the whole process becomes silly.

Authentication is a good thing for questionable signatures but still the process should be charged based on the process and not how much someone thinks it might be worth. Lately I have just been waiting and watching for this whole memorabilia hype bubble to burst just like the housing market.

I agree with everyone about wanting the best autograph possible. I also find that earlier autographs tend to be more full and desirable. For example, I have some pre walking dead Norman Reedus signatures that are much nicer than the typical "NRS" we get today. One problem I have is when sellers on Ebay have multiple of one autograph card to sell and they post a picture of the best one. I have learned to request a scan for the one I am receiving.

The other thing is a grading service might slab a card as just below Mint but then the guy gets his card back opens it and resubmits it because he heard it could come back as Mint if it's that close. Are they checking for micro-specks off an edge the first time and maybe overlooking them the next?

There's also the situation in which some collectors talking about one grading service possibly making sure the "B+" is always an "A-" for regular customers. I've heard collectors talk about preferring one service over another because they thought it was the most objective.

In the future I think non-sport collectors will make a general move to having at least some of their cards graded. It isn't just the grading, it's the "population study" part of it that interests them.

quote:

Originally posted by mykdude:

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

In modern cards, those collectors that insist on grading will not touch anything less than a 9. Thankfully non-sport card collectors have not taken to grading and I for one find that very sensible. To me, you should consider grading only when there is a question regarding the authenticity of a card because of known counterfeiting or if the card value is extremely high and you are thinking of selling. If you don't intend to ever sell, who are you grading it for?

This sums up the whole grading issue. Anything produced after the entire collecting community started shoving their cards (or comics) into protective pages or boxes is a waste of money as far as grading is concerned. When you add their convoluted system of tiered price justification the whole process becomes silly.

Authentication is a good thing for questionable signatures but still the process should be charged based on the process and not how much someone thinks it might be worth. Lately I have just been waiting and watching for this whole memorabilia hype bubble to burst just like the housing market.

I agree with everyone about wanting the best autograph possible. I also find that earlier autographs tend to be more full and desirable. For example, I have some pre walking dead Norman Reedus signatures that are much nicer than the typical "NRS" we get today. One problem I have is when sellers on Ebay have multiple of one autograph card to sell and they post a picture of the best one. I have learned to request a scan for the one I am receiving.

quote:

Originally posted by catskilleagle:
The other thing is a grading service might slab a card as just below Mint but then the guy gets his card back opens it and resubmits it because he heard it could come back as Mint if it's that close. Are they checking for micro-specks off an edge the first time and maybe overlooking them the next?

There's also the situation in which some collectors talking about one grading service possibly making sure the "B+" is always an "A-" for regular customers. I've heard collectors talk about preferring one service over another because they thought it was the most objective.

In the future I think non-sport collectors will make a general move to having at least some of their cards graded. It isn't just the grading, it's the "population study" part of it that interests them.

I will agree with you that we may see more non-sport cards being graded, but I don't know if it will be by non-sport card collectors.

Not too sure how many non-sport card collectors look at the population studies, or even know they exist. That is more in the realm of sports card collectors and there is a big push by card manufacturers to grow their products by getting the sports card speculators and dealers involved with these super premium non-sport cards released under the lines of Masterworks and now Stellar. I don't think that's a secret when you start talking about 10K boxes.

So sure, autograph cards that may be going for over 1K will be good targets for speculators to get graded because they believe it will garner an automatic premium. But will it? If an ungraded, unblemished Stellar Ridley can sell for say $1,500, will a graded 9.5 Stellar Ridley go for $3,000? I don't know, I think that has to be determined when we start to see them up for sale.

I haven't heard collectors who like to grade talk so much about objectivity, as I have heard them talk about getting better grades. Right now there are really only 2 big names in the field that are well known and I think collectors prefer one or the other based on what came back to them. When they submit cards that they feel are mint and they come back with deductions that take it below a 9, that grade works against selling it. That's when they start breaking it out of the slab.

Grading only works for the card owner if it will result in an attached premium for a new buyer. That's why I said, who are you grading it for? If its to check that its not a counterfeit or hasn't been repaired, those are legitimate reasons to do it for yourself. Otherwise you are doing it to get more money from the next buyer.

If by the term "population study" you are referring to the grading services tracking of every card graded, I am not convinced of any real benefit to the modern collector. Only very rare (read old) items that would prompt most people to get it graded would this information be good for.

If an item is numbered than I don't really need a population study. If a new item numbered to 10 has all of them graded and the grades break out between 9.8 and 10 can I REALLY trust the results? Why should I pay a $1000 for a 10 if I can get a piece of **** 9.8 for $500?

I get that we have entered into this age of manufactured rarity by card companies but given general collecting habits it is safe to assume that most of what was produced is still in pretty good shape. When we are at the point to where we are grading for micro defects in order to build a range it just means that grading companies are in the business of manufacturing rarity as well.

The process is out of control.

quote:

Originally posted by mykdude:
If by the term "population study" you are referring to the grading services tracking of every card graded, I am not convinced of any real benefit to the modern collector.

The process is out of control.

Nor should you be, the population tracking is a joke. Its just some meaningless data that is supposed to say how many times a certain card was submitted for grading and what was the breakdown of grades for that particular card. In other words, we graded 100 of this one card and gave out 10 10s, 20 9.5s, 30 9s and so on down the line.

Now you have to realize that the only modern or newer cards that people are sending in to be graded are what they think are the best examples because they want the highest grades. So how telling is a tracking report going to be if you are trying to evaluate a modern card? Are you going to see a 5 rating on 2014 card? If you do, the collector who sent that in doesn't have a clue. Not happening.

On vintage cards the only value it has is to tell you how hard it is to achieve a higher grade on certain issues. In some of the older sets, where off center and chipping and blurring is rampant, a 10 is impossible to get. But they are still sending in only what they think are the best examples.

On modern cards its possible that it might make collectors realize that some high value cards, particularly autograph cards, have been compromised by counterfeiters and should be authenticated just for the collectors peace of mind. However the collector probably has a pretty good idea of the things to watch for before purchasing big ticket cards that come with high risk. The time to do that research is before you buy it.

So in conclusion, grading company tracking looks very professional on a spreadsheet, but the numbers are skewered in so many ways that you can make up any conclusions you want and it really doesn't mean anything to the average card collector.

Right, the newer stuff comes out top heavy on the population report.

Not to mention cards pulled from their slabs to be resubmitted for a better grade. Now the population report registers 2 cards when it was only 1.

Also, the big missing piece to the puzzle for nu-numbered graded cards is total production run of that card.

I think my biggest concern is if the grading companies are into all of these gimmicks, can I honestly trust their authentication services?