I realize that case and box runs have a significant impact BUT!

What would you estimate the production run of an average, no frills, no major star quality autograph card is in a standard non sports release?

I know back in the overproduction years it could be as much as 1000 or 1500 but for some reason my mind thinks that 700 or 800 is more realistic today.

Am I close or way off base?

Really depends on the manufacturer and product. Major films like Star Wars and the Marvel brands from Topps and Upper Deck you are probably in the right range.

TV shows from Cryptozoic etc. I would say more like 400-500 top's, maybe less. The Terminator 2 release from Unstoppable I have seen the figures and the three " common " autos are about 400 each.

quote:

Originally posted by mykdude:
What would you estimate the production run of an average, no frills, no major star quality autograph card is in a standard non sports release?

I don't know how to answer that because a no frills product is no longer a standard non-sports card release. Some small independent manufacturers are doing a few niche titles that are just base cards and chase or insert sets, but they are specialty products not standard. The runs on these seem pretty low, maybe only a couple of hundred boxes or less total.

As far as standard product goes, not even including Topps or UD, who have those major star autographs, every card manufacturer is trying to add as many bells and whistles to their sets as they can. Autographs, sketches, costumes, plates, props and all manner of fake relic cards are standard premium hits now.

Card collectors continue to say that they want cheap, no frills sets. Yet when someone does make such a set, they don't sell well because there is nothing good in them. The premium hits are what drives sales and the card makers all seek to add at the very least all the major autographs to the product, even though they may be minor actors that are only major to that title.

If you want to consider TV shows from main manufacturers as your standard, the last I saw the numbers were around 3000 boxes as an average run. They are not no frills sets, although the stars are not big names. I haven't been buying them in boxes this year, so they may have cut back a bit on production if they can't acquire enough of the hits.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

I don't know how to answer that because a no frills product is no longer a standard non-sports card release. Some small independent manufacturers are doing a few niche titles that are just base cards and chase or insert sets, but they are specialty products not standard. The runs on these seem pretty low, maybe only a couple of hundred boxes or less total.

Ok...You read waaaay too much into the phrase "no frills"

Typically when a production run is short (Vampire Academy or Mortal Instruments) it is generally advertised as such.

I am pretty much talking about the standard 8 to 12K box release with an auto inserted per box. Basically the average release before Inkworks folded. Sets where the few main stars are short printed and everyone else fills the 1 auto per box advertisement.

Small companies or premium sets I can pretty much figure out a decent estimate.

Rittenhouse is great with numbers until you read that a "Normal" autograph is over 500. There are a lot of numbers over 500.

Basically what I am doing is trying to provide a realistic production number into my inventory when one isn't specifically listed or identified on the website.

quote:

Originally posted by Triple-Frog:

Really depends on the manufacturer and product. Major films like Star Wars and the Marvel brands from Topps and Upper Deck you are probably in the right range.

TV shows from Cryptozoic etc. I would say more like 400-500 top's, maybe less.

So, would you assign an estimated production number based on the manufacturer? Say Cryptozoic is 500 and Topps is 750 sort of thing?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: mykdude,

quote:

Originally posted by mykdude:

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

I don't know how to answer that because a no frills product is no longer a standard non-sports card release. Some small independent manufacturers are doing a few niche titles that are just base cards and chase or insert sets, but they are specialty products not standard. The runs on these seem pretty low, maybe only a couple of hundred boxes or less total.

Ok...You read waaaay too much into the phrase "no frills"

Typically when a production run is short (Vampire Academy or Mortal Instruments) it is generally advertised as such.

I am pretty much talking about the standard 8 to 12K box release with an auto inserted per box. Basically the average release before Inkworks folded. Sets where the few main stars are short printed and everyone else fills the 1 auto per box advertisement.

So, would you assign an estimated production number based on the manufacturer? Say Cryptozoic is 500 and Topps is 750 sort of thing?

So now you have really have lost me because I don't know why you are referring to before Inkworks folded.

But if you are just asking what my idea of an average print run would be for a mainstream non-sport product with one autograph per box from a major manufacturer, I would still guess 3000 hobby boxes in 250 cases.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

So now you have really have lost me because I don't know why you are referring to before Inkworks folded.

But if you are just asking what my idea of an average print run would be for a mainstream non-sport product with one autograph per box from a major manufacturer, I would still guess 3000 hobby boxes in 250 cases.

Just a basic time frame, seems to me that after that happened production runs and releases started to get a bit more cautious. Seems to me that from the late 90s until 2009 or 10 most sets followed a basic pattern. Even Topps shocked us by being generous with one auto per box through the LOTR, X-men and some of the Star Wars sets during that time.

250 seems a bit low to me. I know that Vampire Academy was considered a small print run at 199 cases and something like Game of Thrones is crankin out about 1200 cases while Bond runs about 750. I think even some of the Xena stuff put out a 1000 cases.

But that is probably what I am going to have to do. Basically list which sets I am dealing with and then go to Jeff's page and see if I can play with the numbers from there.

I was looking at the Dead Zone information and I can't tell if there were 333 or 800 cases released. A numbered case card says one thing but a numbered casting call insert set says another. ANYWAY......FUN STUFF!!

In todays market you can roughly figure out the production of most products. Rittenhouse is easy since they number their boxes. Topps you can use numbered cards and posted odds to figure out a close estimate of production. Upper Deck you can do the same except you won't know how much they hold back for their epack release.

Never really tried to figure out Cryptozoic so not sure on them but as mentioned earlier their print runs are definitely smaller than the other guys.

Don't forget that just because a company releases 3000 boxes of a product that does not mean they released all the product they had printed.

Once bitten forever shy.

quote:

Originally posted by mykdude:

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

So now you have really have lost me because I don't know why you are referring to before Inkworks folded.

But if you are just asking what my idea of an average print run would be for a mainstream non-sport product with one autograph per box from a major manufacturer, I would still guess 3000 hobby boxes in 250 cases.

Just a basic time frame, seems to me that after that happened production runs and releases started to get a bit more cautious. Seems to me that from the late 90s until 2009 or 10 most sets followed a basic pattern. Even Topps shocked us by being generous with one auto per box through the LOTR, X-men and some of the Star Wars sets during that time.

250 seems a bit low to me. I know that Vampire Academy was considered a small print run at 199 cases and something like Game of Thrones is crankin out about 1200 cases while Bond runs about 750. I think even some of the Xena stuff put out a 1000 cases.

But that is probably what I am going to have to do. Basically list which sets I am dealing with and then go to Jeff's page and see if I can play with the numbers from there.

I was looking at the Dead Zone information and I can't tell if there were 333 or 800 cases released. A numbered case card says one thing but a numbered casting call insert set says another. ANYWAY......FUN STUFF!!

Yeah its good to bounce numbers and notions around. Even with so much info out there, we are often left to guess at production numbers based on the tilted data of what we gleam from sales listings.

I would agree that 250 cases, 3000 boxes, is on the low side of average. But I came to that conclusion after considering what I have seen of products in the last two years, not going back as far as you are, and not including major titles like Star Trek and Star Wars, since you said no big autographs.

In the era of Xena, yeah I can believe 1000 cases, but look how much of that is overproduction. A similar TV show title done now should be much closer to that 250 case mark I think.

Anyway, I certainly wouldn't argue with wolfie's point that we never really know, even when we are told.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

Anyway, I certainly wouldn't argue with wolfie's point that we never really know, even when we are told.

Yeah, something else that I knew but forgot to add into the equation.

We will use numbered insert sets to try an figure out a production run but many of those inserts are in retail cases as well.

I cant remember if The Dead Zone had a retail product but that would explain why one card in a subset is a case insert numbered to 333 while the rest of the set (1 set inserted per case) is 600.