As a long time autograph card collector from way back in my sports card days, I've been thinking about the evolutionary cycle of trading cards as a hobby. I thought I would try to break down my impressions in easily defined time frames. The dates are less important than the cycle and it's all just my opinion. However, whether they match up or not, I would like other Card Talk members to contribute their own comments as to how they think the non-sport card market got here today.

ALL DATES PRIOR TO 1980:
This is my vintage years. Anything 1979 and before may as well be considered the stone age. Sports cards were still made for kids, but it had already started to be an adult collectible for those 50's and 60's baseball stars. Non-sport cards were released on sparse titles, mainly TV, movie and comic characters. Print runs were much larger than any possible demand for just about everything. Only people with forethought were saving their cards.

1980 TO 1999:
This was the period when the trading card industry took off. Of course, baseball cards lead the way, but all pro sport cards surged in value, and with value came demand. Non-Sport cards picked up in production too, but as a market always lagged behind baseball, football, basketball and even hockey card collectors. In this cycle we had card shows somewhere within distance every weekend and multiple local card stores. Business was booming and almost every card dealer was making money because so many new card collectors had taken it up. People were buying and not yet trying to sell in mass.

Now this all began to change around 1997. Several factors came into play. Card overproduction was rampant. Collectors started to think about selling and found out that dealers were a one way street. Card shows began to slow down because the big change had already occurred. Here comes the Internet and eBay, and the card hobby was blown up.

Dealers didn't need to have a store or buy a table. They could find customers at home. The double-edged sword was that card collectors found out how easy it was to locate their cards. Those limited editions of 5,000 and 10,000 runs were now going to be around forever. This was true of all collectibles, be it stamps, coins, beanie babies, hummels, etc. The Internet turned a switch around 1998 and by 2000 card dealers and other collectibles sellers started losing money and shutting down.

2000 TO 2019:
This cycle was a mixed bag, especially for non-sport cards. There were great things happening to non-sport cards, but only after we had some bad losses. Many card manufacturers who made the best non-sport cards closed down in the earlier years. I'm talking about companies that were pioneers to card innovation like Inkworks, Press Pass, and my personal favorite Breygent, among others. Even the ones now that kept the same trademark names are not the same owners from this period. By 2013 it was a new landscape. The sports card bubble from pre-2000 went bust, but new bubbles were emerging and that brought up the prices of premium, highly limited non-sport cards.

By the start of 2000 certain changes took off. Autograph, relic, and even sketch cards became expected pack hits in all card products. A plain base set box was no longer selling. The more hits that came out, the less the average hit was in demand. Right or wrong, card boxes became a lottery more than ever. Pack buying was replaced by box buying. By 2019 case buying would be replacing box buying. eBay was driving the high prices, but also reducing the market to its lowest elements. Prices raced to the bottom, while ultra limited issues were artificially created to attract novice followers who hadn't seen the bubble bust before. Card Grading took over sports cards and was trying to entice the resisting non-sport card crowd. Cards and autograph and relics looked better than ever. Sports card collectors were turning to non-sport products and the premium hobby box prices went thru the roof.

It was also in this cycle that the prospect of complete set construction known as the Master Set Card Collector officially died. Sports card sets had already been expanding in the 90's and were too large for most collectors. Yet on the non-sport card side, the 2000's opened with small sized sets and insert checklists. Even all the big hits might number fewer than 16. You could still be a completist on the title of your choice. But by the time the 2000 teens rolled around almost all premium non-sport card products were out of reach for completion by even above average deep pocket collectors. Increased pricing and all those short printed cards, including 1/1s, got to the point where only portions of a set could be finished on current product.

This cycle really turned on the card investor vs. the card collector mentality that had become the excuse of sports card buying way back in the 80s. Only now the neglected step-child cards of non-sport were front and center thanks in no small part to the resurgence of Marvel and DC properties, as well as TV shows like Game of Thrones. Sports card sellers hopped on board and some buyers were convinced they were getting in on the ground floor of blue-chip stocks.

2020 TO NOW:
Then the Pandemic hit and changed everything again.

For a while it looked like the hobby wouldn't survive, but that was just a knee jerk reaction. Every card show, every hobby store had to close up for about 15 months, give or take a couple. Most did not return, but there weren't a lot of hobby stores left over from prior cycles and local card shows had already been reduced to flea market tables. New card manufacturing also stalled for the period, but the few mainstream card makers left halted, but did not close.

The idea that people would stop buying cards because they weren't working was dispelled early on. Lots of people seemed to get more money with less work than ever in these early years. They had nothing to do but become Internet followers and jump on the collectible's bandwagon. Most of them had no idea what they were doing, but it drove the market none the less for all collectors.

Which is why it drove away many long-time collectors of non-sport cards, as well as other things. The old standard principle of supply and demand cannot be counted on. Truly limited, aged collectibles are passed over for newly minted product. The 5,000 print run has been replaced by 1/1, 1/5, 1/10, 1/20, 1/50, 1/100 cards that added up are overproduction for upcoming years beyond demand. Sticker autographs guarantee that the dead will live forever.

NSU, Non-Sport Update, the last non-sport card magazine in publication ceased to exist.

So where are we now. The best of times to make beautiful and exciting non-sport cards. The worst of times for a collector who wants to keep his/her cards. The best cards are unaffordable. Boxes are too risky to buy blind. Top tier individual card prices are insane. Kickstarter card projects abound but are generally no competition to the few remaining mainstream card manufacturers. The average non-sport card collectors have had to adjust to the situation in the best way possible for themselves. Many have gone back to fill holes or scaled down their buying. Some have quit or just went into a holding pattern. Others have found more focused ways to satisfy their need to own cards. I still buy autograph cards and have seen more new certified signers pop up at more affordable prices than in prior years. There are places to look for good bargains if you know what to stay away from.

I missed a lot of history I know, but I tried to summarize my card collecting thoughts in a linear way that was neither too negative nor too positive and isn't a book. I hope it gives you all something to read and maybe you'd want to add on your own experiences. It's been a great hobby and that pendulum keeps swinging.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Raven,

That's comprehensive and concise.
Well done.

I like it too. The only other thing I could think of is how the recession of 2008 affected the hobby. A lot of people cut back and sold at least some of their stuff across the following several years. It was a good time to buy in that 2015-2020 interval.

A couple of minor points:

I worked at a collectibles store (mostly comics and record albums, but also sports and nonsports cards) in the late 1970s, and the hobby/market was more robust than you are giving it credit for. There were adult collectors for not only vintage cards but also current ones. There were card shows. Price guides were already available. Classic nonsports sets like Mars Attacks were highly collectible.

You end your "stone age" in 1979. I'd end it a year later, and start the next era in 1981. That's the year that Fleer and Donruss showed up in baseball cards, and to me, that is the significant date for the start of overproduction.

"Non-Sport Update, the last non-sport card magazine in publication"
Don't forget Les Davis and The Wrapper.

Raven

I take it that your potted history only applies to North America because card collecting also was abundant in the UK, Europe, Australia, New Zealand and the Far East as well as the rest of the world I from 1900 onwards and has never ceased.

John

Indeed John it is a "potted history" and meant to spark conversation among card collectors who were "been there, done that". I do only know North America and was not a vintage card collector. My childhood baseball cards went the way of the trash bin and I really only became a serious collector in the 80's. Bill's point about Fleer and Donruss is quite accurate. Their challenge to the Topps monopoly was the start of the manufacturer wars. It signaled real money in trading cards. The other huge entry was Upper Deck in 1989. That began the premium card market and UD dominated more so even over Topps for many years, while the cheaper looking Fleer and Donruss eventually had to fold.

I tried to include only snippets of what I knew. Some of it is merely my opinion. There was certainly vintage cards made maybe 100 years before 1979. The Mantle rookie was fueling the baseball card market more than any other single card. Again as Bill said, "Mars Attacks" was anchoring the non-sport card crowd. That and maybe Superman and Batman.

There was no such thing as autograph cards in packs until the early 90s. In person autographs on cards were regarded as defacing the cards and worthless to card collectors. How the accepted hobby rules have changed.

I could go on for a long time, as it's been a long time, but say it yourself rather than listen to me. John, you know Europe, you know vintage. I don't. Rather than say I missed it, write about your history. We want to know too.

Thanks for the nice comments. Coming from you guys, it's a compliment. Your remarks have jogged more memories, so please try to find some time to post longer. While we still have this forum, I think new content is important. History is not just about reliving the past. It's also a good indication of where we are going. We are doomed to repeat what we haven't learned from, so say what you've learned.

quote:

Originally posted by JOHN LEVITT:
Raven

I take it that your potted history only applies to North America because card collecting also was abundant in the UK, Europe, Australia, New Zealand and the Far East as well as the rest of the world I from 1900 onwards and has never ceased.

John

Go ahead and write it up the same way, but for what we (secretly) call NotMerica, and we'll weave it into the tapestry.