Think I will drop some sets on with crazy prices and see what happens. I don't particularly want to sell them and don't need to, call it an experiment.

It's a weird time. What do you do when the cards you got in your $50-75 box or bought for $50-75 are suddenly selling for hundreds or that card you splurged a couple of hundred is now going for thousands? With that money, you could fix the back fence, your teeth, and have some extra to replenish the emergency fund depleted over the past couple of years.

You're right about some collectors. Once in the "black hole" or "the vault," the cards/collectibles won't come out until the heirs end up with them. You hear stories about some big money guy trying to impress some old guy with $100 bills to get near-unattainable jewel of the past but his collection is part of him in a way a hipster can't possibly understand. Next week, the hipster would trade it for some aging cheese.

quote:

Originally posted by X:

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

quote:

Originally posted by X:
I think its a sad state of affairs for genuine collectors (and where I say genuine, I mean those who are not fickle/flash-in-the pan), who cannot get cool cards for reasonable prices because everything is being hoovered up by the new-blood, who I suspect will not remain long term. But if the old-school are looking to cash in, now would seem a good time because who knows how much longer the bubble will swell and if/when it will burst.

THIS. Many of these in-demand short printed autograph cards are really hard to find because actual card collectors tucked them away in their collections soon after they appeared. As this wild, wild west card market has developed, be it because of profit speculators or new blood with more money than sense, the temptation to sell the crown jewels of their collections is no longer unthinkable. In fact, I agree. If you are going to cash in, now's the time to pull the trigger. Maybe passed time, as the economy is already turning.

However once longtime card collectors do let their big cards out in bunches, be it certified autographs or any other kind of rarity, the prices should drop as supply increases and sellers go into competition to undercut each other. I don't know if you'd characterize this as the bubble bursting, so much as it is a realization that a manufactured, relatively new collectable made of paper and ink can only be worth so much before someone is getting robbed.

Crazy high prices will no doubt tempt some long-time collectors to set some rare cards free, but I think it will also help keep them bolted down into certain collections even more firmly.

Non-sport collectors seem to consistently buy for the enjoyemnt of the card and the topic, not so much for value at all. Most could accurately be said to have 'black hole' collections into which cards effectively disappear from the market for decades, if not forever. Passion I find generally trumps profit with these things, and even if tempted to sell, I think the harcorde card collector would be so afraid of potential regret at making the wrong decsion to sell, and that they could never reaquire the card again if needed, it's safer to just keep enjoying what you already have than let them go.

I think this is also what is frustrating the 'new blood' so much - they just don't understand this collecting mentality. They appear to think everything should be available to those willing to spend the money, not realising that most of the 'best' cards already found permanent homes years ago. Vulgar and reckless spending doesn't induce everyone to part with their passions and memories.

For those reasons, and that there are too few of the most desirable cards made in the first place, I doubt we'll ever see a glut of the hard-to finds hit the market all at once. I don't see under-cutting, but heopfully a softening of the insanity that had been bubbling the last couple of years.

quote:

Originally posted by X:

quote:

Originally posted by webjon:

quote:

Originally posted by bone:
Chris Pine's 2nd Star Trek autograph for $410. This is the first time I've seen this card sell for over $250.

Jason Isaac'sHarry Potter GOF card for $326.

There is a guy on Blowout who has been pumping up Harry Potter cards to his Instagram followers -- this person and many of his followers seem to have decided to 'invest' in Harry Potter cards, which may be driving a lot of the sales -- and asking prices.

The prices are spiking quickly on some cards. Hard to tell if this is going to be sustainable, but many of the Marvel cards that have been pumped up recently have dropped in price significantly already. I'm personally not buying anything at massively inflated prices.

I've been watching said collector's warpath to accumulate everything Potter. On the one hand I to admire and enjoy the clear enthusiasm and pleasure on display of someone new to non-sports. On the other, the money being thrown around willy-nilly is almost gut-wrenching to watch as the hobby is pushed in more ridiculous directions.

I find that thread maddening and do everything I can to avoid posting -- even recently when the guy expressed surprise that Emma Watson's first autograph wasn't her most valuable which was followed by the predictable rookie card discussion.

The reason I find it maddening is that this guy clearly could have come into the Harry Potter collecting space, joined the existing collectors without manipulating the market.

I was working on a Harry Potter collection when this guy blew it up, and I haven't been able to buy another card since. The prices are stupid now. I suspect they will fall -- this guy may really be passionate about Harry Potter, but his Instagram followers and many of the others he is 'pumping' likely are only in it for the money -- clearly they don't understand the hobby. I don't think this will last.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: webjon,

I concur. Jason Isaac's GOF auto card used to sell for less than $100. Now you won't find it for less than $300. Even Rupert Grint and Tom Felton's Pop Century cards have gone up.

quote:

Originally posted by X:
I've been watching said collector's warpath to accumulate everything Potter. On the one hand I to admire and enjoy the clear enthusiasm and pleasure on display of someone new to non-sports. On the other, the money being thrown around willy-nilly is almost gut-wrenching to watch as the hobby is pushed in more ridiculous directions.

I find this conversation very interesting. Can one person manipulate an entire title and ruin the market for all the other non-sport card collectors of that franchise? Sure, if he wants to overpay like a fool, he can buy all the rare cards up. He can complete sets and outbid anyone for anything on auction. He can corner the best cards for his own collection. That is always the advantage of unlimited funding and I'm sure every major card franchise like Star Wars, Star Trek, GoT, Bond. Marvel and DC have super collectors/investors with more money than sense.

But those are considered outliers, not average buyers. Sure if you can find that person, maybe you get $10,000 for Emma Watson (a sub-par actor BTW). That doesn't make the card worth $10,000 to anyone else. Or does this one guy buy every big Potter card that comes up for sale for insane prices? These cards are years old now, Potter collections have already been built. No one has to sell their cards to anybody.

So how does one person destroy a whole market segment unless the collective goes along with it? This idea of a select few pumping autograph card prices only works when the vast majority of buyers gives up the right to think for themselves.

By the way I do know that HP was done solely by Bregent in more limited editions, which makes the cards, especially the hits, rarer than your typical big franchise and it's easier to become a Big Fish in a Small Pond. That doesn't mean the Big Fish does well after he eats up all the food and all the other fish disappear.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Raven,

I've read that thread on Blowout and I kind of felt like needing to dry my hands afterwards from all the slime, mostly with the Emma Watson/Hermione obsession.
The person really doesn't get why people won't sell some of the rarer cards, even with stupid money being offered. Nope, they aren't a true collector in the way I see it; I got the impression it was a major lot of willy-waving, to be honest.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

By the way I do know that HP was done solely by Bregent in more limited editions

I think HP was Artbox?

It was, and their print runs were similar to other manufacturers at that time. They did do limited cards for each release, autos, props, and wardrobes, plus several SDCC exclusives, some of which were almost impossible without a lot of luck. I can see some of these cards being expensive, but Emma Watson autos make no sense at those price levels, she signed for at least 5 sets if not more.

quote:

Originally posted by Ted Dastick Jr.:

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

By the way I do know that HP was done solely by Bregent in more limited editions

I think HP was Artbox?

Oh you're right of course. Artbox made terrific cards, but really the only big title they had was Harry Potter and they closed down as soon as it was finished. Breygent was my personal favorite, so I always think of them. Both of them had quality hits that were really made for collectors.

In the various hobbies there have been individuals who outbid and outsniped the competition for in-demand items but that kind of person virtually disappeared by the time the recession hit everybody. I remember hearing about a vintage lunchbox collector who became famous within that hobby and then I think he wrote a book and sold his collection. Values dropped. In that situation he wasn't just buying everything. He was getting people excited about lunchboxes and drawing in new collectors or people who still had a few of theirs and wanted more of them.

There was another guy in the early 2000's who was buying 70's-90's pin-up calendars (and beer posters, I think) and there were a few Ebay sellers specializing in that. When I saw they were selling, I started selling what I had but then he sold his collection around the time of the recession and that stuff stopped selling like it used to. I had sold a calendar for over $300 because two guys got into a sniper shootout in the last minute.

Anyway, that guy who pays through the nose for everything never hangs around for long. He either loses the passion or he never really had it - just a fling. He just didn't grow up with it - no feel for the history. I haven't read the Blowout thread yet so that Harry Potter guy might be different. He might keep what he's been buying and he might even join Card Talk but odds are he will sell too and not too far in the future. His problem is no one is going to pay what he did for every card if he waits too long and you autograph card collectors are going to get another shot at whatever he outgunned you for recently and for less than what he paid.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:

quote:

Originally posted by X:
I've been watching said collector's warpath to accumulate everything Potter. On the one hand I to admire and enjoy the clear enthusiasm and pleasure on display of someone new to non-sports. On the other, the money being thrown around willy-nilly is almost gut-wrenching to watch as the hobby is pushed in more ridiculous directions.

I find this conversation very interesting. Can one person manipulate an entire title and ruin the market for all the other non-sport card collectors of that franchise? Sure, if he wants to overpay like a fool, he can buy all the rare cards up. He can complete sets and outbid anyone for anything on auction. He can corner the best cards for his own collection. That is always the advantage of unlimited funding and I'm sure every major card franchise like Star Wars, Star Trek, GoT, Bond. Marvel and DC have super collectors/investors with more money than sense.

But those are considered outliers, not average buyers. Sure if you can find that person, maybe you get $10,000 for Emma Watson (a sub-par actor BTW). That doesn't make the card worth $10,000 to anyone else. Or does this one guy buy every big Potter card that comes up for sale for insane prices? These cards are years old now, Potter collections have already been built. No one has to sell their cards to anybody.

So how does one person destroy a whole market segment unless the collective goes along with it? This idea of a select few pumping autograph card prices only works when the vast majority of buyers gives up the right to think for themselves.

By the way I do know that HP was done solely by Bregent in more limited editions, which makes the cards, especially the hits, rarer than your typical big franchise and it's easier to become a Big Fish in a Small Pond. That doesn't mean the Big Fish does well after he eats up all the food and all the other fish disappear.

I don’t post very often and only recently decided to jump into the foray of the HP discussion on Blowout. Just a few memories from my admiration of what Artbox achieved with Harry Potter.

Like Webjon, I’ve been a passive HP collector for what seems like forever. Picking up things here or there, and recently feeling regretful for not getting everything back when. It is daunting to see the current prices or even begin to speculate what will happen. It’s even more disappointing to see every listing for non-autograph items get crazy asking prices.

I’m feeling priced out, and am too passionate to sell, so what to do? Sitting back and hoping for a bubble to burst is safe but doesn’t help my progress. I also fear, the prices will stay high and all the scarce cards end up with speculators.

I’m thinking high end only trades may be the only way to finish sets where I get back certain cards. Patience for now. I may just put out for trade a couple of spares to try to finish the autos – but the days of waiting for the right prices seems over with 5X-20X bids. Just the sales tax alone on that 10K Emma was more than the card a short while ago.

It is hard to know what to do with the Harry Potter situation.

Personally I just don't think the prices make sense -- I've been wrong a lot though so who knows.

A year ago I bought a Frank Dillane autograph for $100. 6 months later they were selling for close to $300. Now people are asking $1000. A 10x multiple in a year? For a product that is over a decade old? For a fairly minor character? For an actor who hasn't exactly been blowing it up for the last 5 years?

I thought about trading, which creates its own complications. . . I thought about selling stuff on COMC and then buying the more expensive stuff I've been watching -- basically a 'safe' way to kind of trade. . . but in thinking through that -- if I sell a card for $1000 and then buy another card for $1000 -- sure it's like a trade, but I still can't mentally get over spending that much money on a card.

So for now I'm just going to look elsewhere. . . Once this guys moves on I think prices will drop significantly -- possibly assisted by what looks like a potential recession in our future.

I think many of this guy's followers will be disappointed that there really aren't any returns -- despite the $1000 asking price on the Dillane no one appears to be paying that. Prices stalled at close to $300 late last year. Terapeak shows no recent sales.

$10K for Emma Watson? I mean -- sure she's Hermione, and it's a great card, but $10,000? That has to be either the highest or close to the highest price ever paid for an entertainment card autograph.

quote:

Originally posted by webjon:
It is hard to know what to do with the Harry Potter situation.

Personally I just don't think the prices make sense -- I've been wrong a lot though so who knows.

A year ago I bought a Frank Dillane autograph for $100. 6 months later they were selling for close to $300. Now people are asking $1000. A 10x multiple in a year? For a product that is over a decade old? For a fairly minor character? For an actor who hasn't exactly been blowing it up for the last 5 years?

I thought about trading, which creates its own complications. . . I thought about selling stuff on COMC and then buying the more expensive stuff I've been watching -- basically a 'safe' way to kind of trade. . . but in thinking through that -- if I sell a card for $1000 and then buy another card for $1000 -- sure it's like a trade, but I still can't mentally get over spending that much money on a card.

So for now I'm just going to look elsewhere. . . Once this guys moves on I think prices will drop significantly -- possibly assisted by what looks like a potential recession in our future.

I think many of this guy's followers will be disappointed that there really aren't any returns -- despite the $1000 asking price on the Dillane no one appears to be paying that. Prices stalled at close to $300 late last year. Terapeak shows no recent sales.

$10K for Emma Watson? I mean -- sure she's Hermione, and it's a great card, but $10,000? That has to be either the highest or close to the highest price ever paid for an entertainment card autograph.

I can see where HP is picking up steam again. Many of the people who grew up on HP are adults now, and when they learn they can have a piece of their childhood, if they can afford it they'll pay. It's why everything comes around again just in time for new generations - the old generations rediscover their youth. Why do you think the 1980s are so big? Because guys like myself in their 40s have lots of nostalgia and some disposable income. 1990s stuff has been hot, too. It's only a matter of time before the 2000s come roaring back, which may be what is happening here with HP?

Not to mention, for many Hermione was probably their first crush. Now she's all grown and the boys are feeling all twitterpated, and owning an autograph gets them closer to her. It's pretty creepy, but there's an indisputable market for the ladies. Aside from biggies like Spider-Man and Wolverine, Marvel collectors fawn over the female characters. It's pretty much the same story everywhere. I remember when the Pro Set music cards came out, every card was worth pennies, but the display cases all had Madonna and Belinda Carlisle cards for $2-$3.

quote:

Originally posted by catskilleagle:
It's a weird time. What do you do when the cards you got in your $50-75 box or bought for $50-75 are suddenly selling for hundreds or that card you splurged a couple of hundred is now going for thousands? With that money, you could fix the back fence, your teeth, and have some extra to replenish the emergency fund depleted over the past couple of years.

You're right about some collectors. Once in the "black hole" or "the vault," the cards/collectibles won't come out until the heirs end up with them. You hear stories about some big money guy trying to impress some old guy with $100 bills to get near-unattainable jewel of the past but his collection is part of him in a way a hipster can't possibly understand. Next week, the hipster would trade it for some aging cheese.

Weird times indeed. Remember just a few years back there would be posts here about how we could/should get kids interested in non-sport cards to preserve the future of the hobby? That's a big laugh. What kid could touch this stuff? Now all I hear about is hipsters, gamblers, sports card guys, investors, social influencers and whatever new catch phrase comes up for this "new blood" with money to burn. None of which having anything to do with card collecting, but it's changing the rules anyway.

I have to say that I personally know none of these people. I'm not in the thick of things right now, so maybe they are wandering around all over the place, but I know people who think I'm nuts for spending any money at all on autographs and cards. If they were offered a Watson HP or a Clarke GoT autograph card (and Clarke does beat Watson in the stupid money department) for $100 they wouldn't know enough not to pass it by. In logical terms, I'm not sure they are wrong.

So my own opinion is, if you need a fence, or teeth, or the rent, yes the cards should go, if you really can get these sort of flushed buyers. I'm really not confident that I could find these "whales" if and when I'd be trying to sell out. However, if you don't need the money, then a card collector should keep that "black hole" intact regardless of increased value. Isn't the "keeping" part the whole purpose of the exercise?

I do not know much about or collect Autograph cards but with the alleged rise in hard to obtain Auto cards must be a selective thing
I notice that what seems to be one of the Buffy biggies Charisma has a couple for sale at no noticeable increase in price.
Seeing as this bubble is over most licenses i would of at least expected this cards price to fly as over time this card seems to have been a quite sought after item
And I dont think the Inkworks debacle made it any easier to get

quote:

Originally posted by piko:
I do not know much about or collect Autograph cards but with the alleged rise in hard to obtain Auto cards must be a selective thing
I notice that what seems to be one of the Buffy biggies Charisma has a couple for sale at no noticeable increase in price.
Seeing as this bubble is over most licenses i would of at least expected this cards price to fly as over time this card seems to have been a quite sought after item
And I dont think the Inkworks debacle made it any easier to get

I think a lot of the posts in this thread are focused on autograph cards because me and some of the other regular contributors to the thread are personally focused on autographs.

There are certainly other cards that are also spiking in price -- the obvious one that comes to mind is numbered Marvel cards -- especially Precious Metal Gems (PMG) chase cards. I think a Spider-man PMG recently sold for over $100,000.

There are other cards that weren't impacted much at all -- it is possible Buffy cards fall into that category, although I know Alyson Hannigan autographs I have been watching have increased in price a bit -- although nothing near what the Emma Watson card has done.

I think there are a few things happening here -- although I could be wrong.

In general I think there was an organic interest growing in entertainment cards. Prices started slowly creeping upward. This probably started in 2019. Then the pandemic locked people down who started focusing more on their collections -- which pushed prices on many cards up much more quickly.

The increased focus on collecting and increased prices pushed some sports card people (investors/speculators) to look for other avenues of the hobby. A group of them started focusing on Marvel initially PSA graded Marvel Universe cards, then PMGs and a smaller group focused on Harry Potter.

It remains to be seen where this ultimately ends.

There have been wild swings in Marvel cards -- a 2017 Fleer Ultra Spider-man MM0 card was selling for ~$50 a year ago (maybe less), the price spiked to a peak of over $1,200 and then dropped to the point where you could have bought one for a few hundred dollars last month.

I wouldn't be surprised if Harry Potter cards follow a similar pattern.

In other areas there still seem to be increased organic interest in certain cards -- a number of those cards are mentioned in this thread. I think this growth is largely based on people returning to collecting, and nostalgia. I think it is unlikely that we're see wild swings in the prices of these cards unless investors (infestors) start targeting other sets.

The other interesting development is Zerocool -- they seem to be bringing a sports card collector mentality in to the sets they release. So far that doesn't seem to have permeated to other entertainment sets.

You could think of it as $1000 made and then spent and focus on that amount or you can think about selling a card you don't want now - one you got in a box you bought or paid extra for (whether $20, $50, or $100) - and you're getting some other card you want now with that same money spent back then. It is essentially a trade. The money value may rise and/or fall in the future but you got the card you want without having to open your wallet.

quote:

Originally posted by webjon:
It is hard to know what to do with the Harry Potter situation.

Personally I just don't think the prices make sense -- I've been wrong a lot though so who knows.

I thought about trading, which creates its own complications. . . I thought about selling stuff on COMC and then buying the more expensive stuff I've been watching -- basically a 'safe' way to kind of trade. . . but in thinking through that -- if I sell a card for $1000 and then buy another card for $1000 -- sure it's like a trade, but I still can't mentally get over spending that much money on a card.

So for now I'm just going to look elsewhere. . . Once this guys moves on I think prices will drop significantly -- possibly assisted by what looks like a potential recession in our future.

$10K for Emma Watson? I mean -- sure she's Hermione, and it's a great card, but $10,000? That has to be either the highest or close to the highest price ever paid for an entertainment card autograph.

Right, I tend to think of those HP movies as coming out 5-10 years ago but it was 20 years ago. Radcliffe was recently on late night TV. He's in his 30's now so a lot of his fans are also and now they have money to spend. We might be seeing the start of a 2000's nostalgia craze. I know many sellers have been trying to get top dollar for 90's action figures in recent years. The current craze might not be driven just by speculator/hipster interest but we'll have to see if the stratospheric sales continue.

quote:

Originally posted by Ted Dastick Jr.:

quote:

Originally posted by webjon:
It is hard to know what to do with the Harry Potter situation.

Personally I just don't think the prices make sense -- I've been wrong a lot though so who knows.

A year ago I bought a Frank Dillane autograph for $100. 6 months later they were selling for close to $300. Now people are asking $1000. A 10x multiple in a year? For a product that is over a decade old? For a fairly minor character? For an actor who hasn't exactly been blowing it up for the last 5 years?

I thought about trading, which creates its own complications. . . I thought about selling stuff on COMC and then buying the more expensive stuff I've been watching -- basically a 'safe' way to kind of trade. . . but in thinking through that -- if I sell a card for $1000 and then buy another card for $1000 -- sure it's like a trade, but I still can't mentally get over spending that much money on a card.

$10K for Emma Watson? I mean -- sure she's Hermione, and it's a great card, but $10,000? That has to be either the highest or close to the highest price ever paid for an entertainment card autograph.

I can see where HP is picking up steam again. Many of the people who grew up on HP are adults now, and when they learn they can have a piece of their childhood, if they can afford it they'll pay. It's why everything comes around again just in time for new generations - the old generations rediscover their youth. Why do you think the 1980s are so big? Because guys like myself in their 40s have lots of nostalgia and some disposable income. 1990s stuff has been hot, too. It's only a matter of time before the 2000s come roaring back, which may be what is happening here with HP?

Not to mention, for many Hermione was probably their first crush. Now she's all grown and the boys are feeling all twitterpated, and owning an autograph gets them closer to her. It's pretty creepy, but there's an indisputable market for the ladies. Aside from biggies like Spider-Man and Wolverine, Marvel collectors fawn over the female characters. It's pretty much the same story everywhere. I remember when the Pro Set music cards came out, every card was worth pennies, but the display cases all had Madonna and Belinda Carlisle cards for $2-$3.

With the new LOTR show out on Amazon Prime later in the year it will be interesting if the market will spike for the original LOTR autographs. As that is also 20 years since the first movies.
The new crypto set is sure to be popular, but to me the original Topps sets were best and pretty extensive. Personally speaking, I will always rate those original sets above whatever new stuff follows.

For me, I’ve always favored the autograph card for most things and the emotional tie that comes with an on-card autograph. I do believe that those that grew up with HP will/have naturally desire to seek what they enjoyed in childhood. I did & so did the new collectors driving up prices.

I can also understand what happened. There are so many cards sitting in “black holes” (my personal black hole included), that it does take a shock to the market to make things happen. As a new collector, they shared that they bought out a dealer at high prices. If you have the means, why not? It was probably the only way to get what they wanted and a giant leap from zero cards to an instant collection. I don’t think many of us would sell out that way. In the long run – it’s probably better for us that this was a large private transaction that did not occur on eBay over months/years in transactions at more unstable prices. How many single transactions on the same card need to happen before a new normal is set? How long do you wait? Even if the current buyers move on, there might be new buyers, and the price drop might mirror Robert Downey Jr Iron Man cards. They exploded up to $10k, but recently are closer to $6k - $9k maybe (depends on which).

It was easier to buy the HP autos than trade in the past, but now with these price points and taxes ….. Just think of the tax implications in California. Selling high end cards to buy high end cards really starts to add up. Sales tax on a $10K Emma is $850 alone for the buyer. Raising $10K in funds will lead to a 1099 and thousands in taxes. I don’t agree with these prices, but almost $3k in taxes, fees, shipping risks, etc ….Wow – does that even make sense.

I can only see high level trading as one way to keep costs down for both parties. I’ve repeated myself in two posts, as I’m slowly convincing myself to (for the first time) put up for trade openly a few spares to try to get to my new shortened finish line. When I’ve traded in the past – I’ve always been the responder. Do you think requesting high end trades only will work? I don’t want to offend anyone, but the Big 3 autos will almost become their own currency in a sense. It’s like a long shot vs. sitting out (possibly forever - if it's like Robert Downey Iron Man autos)