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Rittenhouse Archieves 2019 X-files
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Contest Czar
Picture of barobehere
posted
Ouch! Just saw that Rittenhouse is doing a premium x-files "collection" at 299.99 a pack. Each pack will have either Scully, Mulder or CSM and 3 of nine metal cards.
300 packs will be produced with 150 of the packs having a William B. Davis autograph card (currently you can pick this auto up for 10 to 25 bucks).
If you order 3 sets 900.00 from Rittenhouse, they will make sure you get 3 packs with one auto from each.
Too rich for my blood!
 
Posts: 5524 | Location: Meridian, Mississippi | Registered: November 23, 2001Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of Raven
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You can not put a William B. Davis autograph into a $300 pack as one of the big hits. RA is crazy to think that any X-File collector would be satisfied with it and he will be in every set. Davis has signed numerous times for X-Files and other titles and he is indeed a $20 signature at best. At 150 copies, even the card wouldn't be extremely rare.

Unless I am misreading the ad, there are only 150 packs that will be available. As far as I see it, only the single autograph of Duchovny and Anderson would matter in terms of value.

If you are going in on this the only way to get any value is to do the $900 for 3 sets. Even that is stretching the market worth for Duchovny and Anderson, but at approximately 50 -100 copies each and getting one multiple from one of them, their autograph cards might go for enough to make it even or profitable to a DEALER. Maybe. Roll Eyes

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Posts: 7119 | Location: New York | Registered: November 20, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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So 300 packs will be made, and 150 of them have the Davis auto ?

So the other 150 have either Scully or Mulder ?

I am confused.
 
Posts: 4167 | Location: Bayonne, NJ, USA | Registered: May 06, 2001Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of Raven
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Yeah the ad is confusing, but it says each set consists of "2 of the following 3 on card autographs" in every set. Then it has Duchovny approx. 50, Anderson approx. 100, and Davis approx. 150.

The math to me is 150 sets with Davis in every one and the second autograph being Duchovny or Anderson, more likely Anderson.

The 3 set bargain will yield you 3 Davis signatures, one each of Duchovny and Anderson and one extra of either Duckovy OR Anderson, with it more likely to be a double of Anderson.
 
Posts: 7119 | Location: New York | Registered: November 20, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Contest Czar
Picture of barobehere
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I just tried to find the ad I saw this morning and could not and then when to scifihobby to see it. Yeah, 150 sets. So, two sets should nab you the 3 different autos but only 6 of the 9 metal cards for 600.00. This is still crazy.
 
Posts: 5524 | Location: Meridian, Mississippi | Registered: November 23, 2001Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of Raven
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quote:
Originally posted by barobehere:
I just tried to find the ad I saw this morning and could not and then when to scifihobby to see it. Yeah, 150 sets. So, two sets should nab you the 3 different autos but only 6 of the 9 metal cards for 600.00. This is still crazy.


No, it won't necessarily work out that way. Two sets COULD get you the three autographs, but all three are only guaranteed if you purchase three sets at once. You could purchase 2 sets and get the same two autographs, 2 of Davis and 2 of Anderson OR 2 of Duchovny. If that were to happen you would more likely get a double Anderson since she signed approximately twice as many as he did.

But here's something else I was thinking about. By putting out the cards this way, and forgetting about the Davis and the metal cards, RA is effectively setting the price of a guaranteed certified card from both Duchovny and Anderson at $300. That would be the retail price of this product/set. According to the 2017 Non-Sport Almanac the price range for their previous X-Files certified cards, random in product with no total number noted, that I see quickly are:

2001 A9 Anderson $200 - $300
2003 AF Anderson $200 - $350
2005 A1 Anderson $100 - $200
2008 A2 Anderson $125 - $200
2008 A1 Duchovny $125 - $200

Now either these ranges are way too low, or the cards are selling way too low, or the autograph cards will now go higher because they look cheap compared to the new ones, or collectors will conclude that the new ones are too high. Take your pick. Big Grin
 
Posts: 7119 | Location: New York | Registered: November 20, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of X
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Interesting announcement.

I was pleased when Steve said there was more X-Files to come, hoping we would be treated to the RA treatment of a deep list of signers for a long running show, but without 'classic' Duchovny and Anderson autos to prop up another full release, I can't see more from RA beyond this factory set.

I agree that William B.Davis is not equivalent to $150 but think he is being sold short as merely a $20 card. He'd bring that all day long on a bad day, his old X-Files cards regularly sell for more and his Season 10&11 X-Files auto has been pulling in $30-$50.

All this number-crunching is very Blowout forum though... William B.Davis is a HUGE part of The X-Files, and besides, don't we hear the same conversation with every RA factory set, that RRP is not reflective of dealer actual cost, or what they will ultimately sell for? Plus the Duchovny & Anderson autos from Season 10&11 have both sold for big money, and if the market stays strong for these two again they will off-set William B.Davis pulling in less.

Prices aside, I was hoping for better pictures for these classic autos, and I can take or leave metal chase cards. They're nice enough but I really don't seem worth it to me given the high price to get them and how plain they are.
 
Posts: 2939 | Location: England | Registered: June 23, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of X
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quote:
Originally posted by Raven:
But here's something else I was thinking about. By putting out the cards this way, and forgetting about the Davis and the metal cards, RA is effectively setting the price of a guaranteed certified card from both Duchovny and Anderson at $300. That would be the retail price of this product/set. According to the 2017 Non-Sport Almanac the price range for their previous X-Files certified cards, random in product with no total number noted, that I see quickly are:

2001 A9 Anderson $200 - $300
2003 AF Anderson $200 - $350
2005 A1 Anderson $100 - $200
2008 A2 Anderson $125 - $200
2008 A1 Duchovny $125 - $200

Now either these ranges are way too low, or the cards are selling way too low, or the autograph cards will now go higher because they look cheap compared to the new ones, or collectors will conclude that the new ones are too high. Take your pick. Big Grin


How are prices compiled for the Almanac?

Based on what I have seen actually sell on eBay over the years, as opposed to crazy asking prices, those ranges are way off:
You can double the top-end of Anderson #A9, starting price at $300 on a lucky day.
Top end of #AF is about right, give or take.
Connections 2005 #A1 comes up less often than any of the others, but still more like $250.
The 2008 I Want To Believe cards are about right (they used the butt ugly silver auto stickers).

I did wonder if the Season 10&11 Duchovny and Anderson autos would depress the values of the old Inworks Andersons, or if strong prices for the new cards would tempt collectors to release some of the old cards to try and cash in on renewed popularity, but none of the old cards seem to have come to market. Even with collectors paying in the $400 ballpark for RA singles of Duchovny & Anderson.

I think it is a case of the old Inkworks Anderson cards being genuinely rare to begin with. There were never loads available at any point, even when the sets were new, and none were released in the Razor sets after the Inkworks inventory dump.

There have never been enough cards of these two particular actors to go around, and Rittenhouse hasn't flooded the market with them either. I expect prices to remain strong for the old and new stuff. I love what RA do, but I still prefer the old blue Inkworks auto design, maybe other collectors do as well? Or still want to assemble that run because it covered all the main cast (except Duchovny)?
 
Posts: 2939 | Location: England | Registered: June 23, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of Raven
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quote:
Originally posted by X:
2001 A9 Anderson $200 - $300
2003 AF Anderson $200 - $350
2005 A1 Anderson $100 - $200
2008 A2 Anderson $125 - $200
2008 A1 Duchovny $125 - $200

Now either these ranges are way too low, or the cards are selling way too low, or the autograph cards will now go higher because they look cheap compared to the new ones, or collectors will conclude that the new ones are too high. Take your pick. Big Grin


How are prices compiled for the Almanac?

Based on what I have seen actually sell on eBay over the years, as opposed to crazy asking prices, those ranges are way off:
You can double the top-end of Anderson #A9, starting price at $300 on a lucky day.
Top end of #AF is about right, give or take.
Connections 2005 #A1 comes up less often than any of the others, but still more like $250.
The 2008 I Want To Believe cards are about right (they used the butt ugly silver auto stickers).

There have never been enough cards of these two particular actors to go around, and Rittenhouse hasn't flooded the market with them either. I expect prices to remain strong for the old and new stuff. I love what RA do, but I still prefer the old blue Inkworks auto design, maybe other collectors do as well? Or still want to assemble that run because it covered all the main cast (except Duchovny)?[/QUOTE]X

_______________________________________________



Almanac price ranges are compiled the same way they are in any price guide, based on the average price of documented sales. I would guess that would lean strongly toward eBay purchases and whatever auctions or private sales might be sufficiently recordable. They usually throw out the top 5% - 10% of the most expensive sales and the lowest 5% - 10% on the cheapest sales. Thinking being somebody was stupid or lying to buy or sell at that price and its not reflective of average value.

Price guide prices can always be off, but if they are way off, people should email the publication and tell them. The fact is, buyers and sellers do look at guides when considering transactions, and if I see a top price of $300, and a BIN for $600, I'm not going to be interested in it.

The other thing here that you are dismissing is the manner in which the release of these Anderson and Duchovny autograph cards differ from previous issues. We don't know the quantity of those other cards, at least I don't. The fact that Anderson has had several means that she has a certain accumulation of autographs, be it on different cards and in different X-File products. There is also on-card and sticker versions, which are additional factors to consider when comparing them. However I believe I am correct in saying that all previous autographs for both of them were either pack inserted or possibly by redemption. Not sure with old Inkworks product. But they were random, high ratio pulls.

This RA X-Files is not random, it is just limited. If you pay your money you are getting one or the other signature. You can say there are extras, but is anyone really buying for those extras? A third of a 9 card chase set? Another William B. Davis? Of course not, they are paying for the only card of value, a guaranteed signed Duchovny or Anderson. Dealers will discount them a bit and break off the rest for a modest sum, but only if they have trouble selling the whole package.

It is the guarantee of the autograph that makes these cards different from previous cards that were hard to find in the wild. This is taking the one card per case concept and putting it into a faux "set" and it's exactly the same format as the RA Buffy release, except that SMG had not signed a certified card up to that point and subsequent additional signers were restricted to one-time or non-signer. Plus the huge success of Buffy was some terrific sketch incentive cards, all designed to prop up the dealers.

So far no sketches or any incentives really are mentioned with this one and the signers, especially Anderson, have prior autographs with a track record. I don't know if the number crunching is Blow-Out forum, I actually didn't read about this one there yet, have to take a look now I guess, but the numbers are important for autograph cards because, while the card and product changes, the genuine signature provides the lion's share of the value. There is the argument that you should pay more for the same autograph in a more expensive product just because the box cost more. It works for stars, best card and all. It doesn't work for commons. Autograph collectors should and do seek out the cheapest certified cards that tick off their boxes, be it on-card or sticker, format design, title/character, look of the autograph, quantity, numbered or unnumbered, whatever it is they focus on. That's why, when discussing autographs, differing opinions can all be valid as long as there is a consistence to the reasoning. You can't argue one way for one product and argue the opposite way for another product, if it's the same thing.

If you look at the SMG and the secondary Buffy autographs, the top prices on early cards have been stagnant since release. Later cards dropped and then held, but are not going back up to SRP of the "set". And only Hannigan had a previous autograph card. By guaranteeing the autograph card, and the card being the only reason you are buying, the price is being capped and it does have an effect on the perceived value of other autograph cards already out there depending on what boxes you want ticked.
 
Posts: 7119 | Location: New York | Registered: November 20, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I'm not sure Buffy/Buffy cards is similar enough a comparison. I know there is a lot of love for it but it is not quite on the same level as The X-Files in the pop-culture phenomenon stakes.

That said, I've been very surprised at the RA Anderson & Duchovny's consistently pulling in up to $500 each. I didn't expect that level of demand, especially with a fair amount of Anderson's having come from Inkworks before.

(All the Inkworks Anderson cards and the one Duchovny were pack inserted, except the Anderson 2005 Connections card which was via redemption).

More cards from RA should have some effect on value of the Inkworks stuff but the Inkworks stuff is so rare, and the market so dry for these two signers, I don't think these new cards will have a massive effect on the new stuff. Another 50 Mulders and 100 Scullys is still not a massive amount. There are more Harrison Ford autos on Star Wars cards these days!
 
Posts: 2939 | Location: England | Registered: June 23, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of Raven
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My comparison to RA's Buffy "sets" was based on the construction. This X-Files is basically produced in the same faux "set" pattern of Buffy, with one autograph card as the hook, minus the sketch incentives. At it's peak Buffy was a huge pop-culture phenomenon, as was the X-Files. The X-Files outlasted Buffy, but beyond that, I think how they leveled up would just depend on which one was liked better by who.

I'm not sure where you are seeing those Anderson and Duchovny autograph card prices. I got a rather limited view of sold items on eBay as there isn't that many, especially on the Inkworks stuff, but it looked like the only sales in the $500 and over range were for the new dual A & D and one for Dochovny's Twin Peaks signature. Beside those, Anderson's were in the mid $300s and he had a couple of really low under $200 ones.

I agree that none of this new RA stuff will flood the market in terms of numbers, but whether it sells out and then goes higher or then has to be discounted will be an indication of how the secondary market demand decides the value.

Remember that there is also the 2019 Upper Deck X-Files release with single and dual autographs, printing plates and sketch cards. That will no doubt be backed up by an e-Pack release later on. So that will add to, and possibly change, whatever we are going on about now. There is more than a bit of uncertainty here. Wink

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Posts: 7119 | Location: New York | Registered: November 20, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post



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Picture of X
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I still think you’re over-complicating things a tad.

The old inkworks autos still sell for loads because they were so rare to begin with. And that’s to say nothing of collectors who may prefer the older cards (for their very strong and distinct design), or who want them for completest reasons.

They are still HARD to obtain at any price even with RA’s cards on the market. I want an RA Mulder & Scully but won’t be giving up my Connections Scully auto, I like it too much and that is a factor with rare cards too.

Some will only want the new RA stuff, which again features a strong design and there still are not enough Anderson & Duchovny to go around.

Upper Deck will give us stickers not doubt, which are still not comparable or worth purchasing to some. Auto designs seen so far look horrible too. And they’ll be as rare as rocking horse **** because it’s Upper Deck.

So still high prices all round I reckon.

And it’s THE X-FILES. It has endured for a quarter of a century. Buffy has never been on the same level (no disrespect to the Buffy fans).

I’ve been to conventions where Anderson and Duchovny have attended and the volume of people coming to see them is insane. Alyson Hannigan pulled in a lot fewer people in comparison at the same event (different years though).

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Posts: 2939 | Location: England | Registered: June 23, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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