If big card selling sites are selling lots of 24 packs for example, rather than a box, can you pretty much guarantee you are going to miss out on the box hits?

Definitely.

Most will say so, but others... Not so much.

I sell them as $1 packs at shows. If you open a lot, you don't really need the extras once you hit the sketch/autograph/costume.

Ed

Cheers for that

Yes you have to read the descriptions of these very carefully. Ive seen some that make it look like you are getting a sealed box of 24 packs.

Some sell the packs that are not cherry picked so you get a chance of an auto/costume.
Some open the packs until they have just the normal number of autos/costumes then sell the packs with chase and base cards in. Some sell only packs that they know only contain base cards.
As the packs come from a number of different boxes you might not even get a full base set.

Read the description very carefully and if in doubt buy from someone else.

The same applies to sealed boxes as well.

quote:

Originally posted by Neilsy:

The same applies to sealed boxes as well.

Yes be careful of this also. Just because it is a sealed box does not mean you have a chance at the big one per case hit.

Quite true, I will usually look at the seller's other items. If they are selling singles from a set, I will likely look fro a box somewhere else.

Sadly this is becoming quite common

I've seen online sales that look like a bargain but the box has been cherry picked so it's half the price for a 'box' but you're basically buying a base set perhaps the odd low end chase and a bunch of spares.

Usually listed as 20/24 packs or 32 of 36 pack box minus major hits. I've seen people try to sell a 'case' but stating alls your getting is ALL the base cards with NO chase at all - Say 12 boxes worth of a base cards

With some sets like Big Bang Theory where there's 1 or 2 major hits per case - The reason some boxes are becoming cheaper is that the dealer will say 'sealed box straight from case' and chance are they already pulled the 2 huge hits so you will (or should) get the stated 'hits' but you probably won't make your money back on the box.

I think it's sad. Having said that I've bought single packs from many reputable dealers/outlets who pride themselves on NOT cherry picking and I've pulled some MAJOR hits this way. In fact my best hits have been from single packs over all the money I ever spent on a whole box.

As a personal rule I never buy a 'broken'/opened box and I read carefully about 'bulk' sales of single packs.

Great question.

With the formulas that card manufacturers are now using to insert the premium cards it has become very easy for case breakers to figure out when they probably pulled all the big hits. This is a bit different than cherry picking a box, which no one should ever do. There is a real temptation here when the remaining boxes are still sealed, but the case breaker knows that he/she already has the 1 or 2 ultra limited cards.

I wish that the manufacturers would keep everybody honest by mixing it up and not have such consistent, predictable breaks.

As for the question, unfortunately loose packs in lots are not a good deal if you're expecting to get hits. I don't even buy from open boxes any more.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:
I wish that the manufacturers would keep everybody honest by mixing it up and not have such consistent, predictable breaks.

The problem with this is how truly random do you want to get.

If each box is truly random, there is no guarantee of any inserts at all in the box.

If the case is truly random, it could be loaded with "rares" or it could have all commons.

Most buyers, both collector and dealer, would be unhappy with either situation.

When you start making guarantees and tiered rarity, you have to make things slightly cyclical. Any other option would be contrary to what everyone has come to expect when they plunk down so much money for a box or case.

Ed

They could certainly "shuffle the deck" a little better when it comes to placement of the hits. I have opened WAY too many products where the box hit was in the same place in each and every box.

quote:

Originally posted by igman7:
They could certainly "shuffle the deck" a little better when it comes to placement of the hits. I have opened WAY too many products where the box hit was in the same place in each and every box.

I agree with you Igman7. My last large purchase was that way. That was a bit anticlimatic for opening. You always knew when you hit pack X then 2 packs later was your next big hit.

Some good advice here.

I would also add that it's finding a dealer you can trust and this can also be luck of the draw. It's a dealer who won't cherry pick and will give his customers a chance of the big pull.

Cheers for the info guys

quote:

Originally posted by Scifi Cards:

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:
I wish that the manufacturers would keep everybody honest by mixing it up and not have such consistent, predictable breaks.

The problem with this is how truly random do you want to get.

If each box is truly random, there is no guarantee of any inserts at all in the box.

If the case is truly random, it could be loaded with "rares" or it could have all commons.

Most buyers, both collector and dealer, would be unhappy with either situation.

When you start making guarantees and tiered rarity, you have to make things slightly cyclical. Any other option would be contrary to what everyone has come to expect when they plunk down so much money for a box or case.

Ed

All true Ed, and I would never suggest that a random mix should mean that one case gets loaded while another might have nothing but common hits. What I meant was that manufacturers should throw in an extra premium hit(s) or another type of hit above what is guaranteed. It need not be in every case. It could be in every second or third case and I don't want some manufactured patch either. Another star autograph or another sketch in a box that wouldn't replace any of the guaranteed hits, just add to them.

That would serve to keep case breakers honest because they wouldn't know if they have a shot at another good hit or not until all the boxes were opened. And it would be a pleasant surprise for box buyers if you found something above what was expected too.

I know that at today's box/case prices I would be more inclined to buy product that offered the chance of getting more than what the box promises.

quote:

Originally posted by Raven:
All true Ed, and I would never suggest that a random mix should mean that one case gets loaded while another might have nothing but common hits. What I meant was that manufacturers should throw in an extra premium hit(s) or another type of hit above what is guaranteed. It need not be in every case. It could be in every second or third case and I don't want some manufactured patch either. Another star autograph or another sketch in a box that wouldn't replace any of the guaranteed hits, just add to them.

That would serve to keep case breakers honest because they wouldn't know if they have a shot at another good hit or not until all the boxes were opened. And it would be a pleasant surprise for box buyers if you found something above what was expected too.

I know that at today's box/case prices I would be more inclined to buy product that offered the chance of getting more than what the box promises.

I've often thought about this too. If you made the autos 1:23 packs instead of 1:24, it would help both the placement problem and allow an additional reason to keep opening packs.

I wouldn't think it would break the bank either for the card companies.

Ed

Some things can't be totally stripped. I learned that first-hand last night. I bought some super-cheap clearance packs online. They were for sets I wanted to build. I expected nothing but base and anything else would be extra.

Extra is exactly what I got in a pack of 2009 Topps WWE - a 1/1 Platinum parallel. Odds were 1:11,000-ish.

Andy28 be careful reading the description. I saw a lot of sellers very clear that they only take out the sketch/costume/auto and when you buy the packs you get the other chase cards. Also I found sellers that take out also the chase cards or a group and never tell you.

yeah i decided against buying things like this for now anyway.