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Yeah, I've seen that happen in other games - a coach skipping a chip shot field goal to try for a first down or skipping the extra point for a try at two points even early in the game. I understand wanting to play aggressively and show confidence in your offense, but take the easy points early. Yeah, the short field goal or extra point isn't guaranteed either but the chance of success is higher. As a rule, I don't like going for 2 before the 4th Quarter. I can see going for 2 in the third quarter if you're in a shootout and you get behind by 8 but you don't want to end up losing a game by 4 points because you ran out of time going for a touchdown while within makeable field goal range.

In the past few years, people have advised doing what the "analytics" say, but those are statistics that may or may not be applicable to your team in a particular game. According to them, you should always go on 4th and 1 even if you're on your own 35-yard line. One yard is never a gimme.

The NFL didn't want to see the Browns have to play with less than 30 players which would have likely led to a very ugly game. Just before the season, it threatened teams with having to forfeit if they suffered outbreaks but it didn't really want forfeits on the books either. I don't know why so many players tested positive at the same time but there was some kind of breakdown in discipline (a big party). If they didn't want a short week, they should have been more careful.

Kyrie Irving is a different guy. He got tired of winning with LeBron and left for the Celtics and then they didn't mind when he moved on to another team.


quote:
Originally posted by Raven:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by catskilleagle:
Yeah, the Chiefs look good. I picked them to beat the Chargers on a hunch but they got outplayed most of the game. It looked like the Chargers defense had tired by those last two drives. Kelce looked like a speedster on the winning touchdown. Jess

Hey Jess,

Don't get me started on that game. Do you realize, and I'm sure you do, that the Chargers passed up 3 field goals trying for touchdowns they didn't get. Three field goals, nine points. Mahomes was throwing the ball into the ground all over the place. The game would have been over. Since when do you pass up easy field goals when your team isn't making the scores? Unbelievable. That is just giving it away, which teams seem to do when they play the Chiefs.

This weekend is a mess and shifting games to different days and then expecting to play on short days to keep the schedule is awful for players. The COVID protocols are falling apart. Now they won't test people unless they look sick. Well some people might think they were testing too much to begin with, but that was the rules they set. Like how Kyrie Irving can now come back and play for the Nets when they didn't want an unvaccinated part time player before. Once the thing starts to break down, all the BS goes out the window to keep it going. Big Grin
 
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quote:
Originally posted by catskilleagle:

In the past few years, people have advised doing what the "analytics" say, but those are statistics that may or may not be applicable to your team in a particular game. According to them, you should always go on 4th and 1 even if you're on your own 35-yard line. One yard is never a gimme.

Just before the season, it threatened teams with having to forfeit if they suffered outbreaks but it didn't really want forfeits on the books either. I don't know why so many players tested positive at the same time but there was some kind of breakdown in discipline (a big party). If they didn't want a short week, they should have been more careful.

Kyrie Irving is a different guy. He got tired of winning with LeBron and left for the Celtics and then they didn't mind when he moved on to another team. Big Grin
[/QUOTE]

Hey Jess,

I never heard so much about "analytics" in football until these past two years. In baseball you always had righty-lefty and change the pitchers and batter shifts and percentage plays. You see how much good that has done for the game. In football, if your team isn't very good on 4th down that day, only an idiot keeps trying because the analytic says so. Take the easy points and don't lose the game.

The reason why football teams cannot be made to forfeit games because of COVID outbreaks is because they are sticking to the COVID protocols and they are still getting positive cases. Almost all the players down with it are fully vaccinated and they have stuck to the rules. The problem now that we are seeing all over is that fully vaccinated doesn't stop breakout cases and further spread. In many cases the players don't even know they have it until the test comes up positive. Sometimes that's false too. It gets to be ridiculous when they keep testing until they find something. They will now keep trying to push thru this season to the end anyway they can.

Yeah Irving has his own weird ideas, but the Nets owners and management are full of it too.
 
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It happened again. The Bears passed up on two short field goals, going for it on 4th down but they didn't get it both times. If they had kicked the field goals, the likelihood is that they would have gotten them. It would have been 17-9 when they started their last drive near the end of the game. They got their only touchdown on the last play. Yes, the Vikings would have played differently on those last few plays had they been just one score ahead, but as poorly as they played and behaved in spots across the game, the Bears would have had a chance to tie on that last drive.

The Vikings were having trouble scoring. Yes, they had a 2 touchdown lead by the end of the 3rd quarter but a field goal would have gotten the Bears just 11 behind. Another field goal would have made it 8 down. Sometimes, you have to piece together a win like that. Even coaches forget that in some high-scoring games, one team might kick 3-4 fields. Other than a game-winning field goal, you're just going to see touchdowns and big gainers in the highlights.
 
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Last week was a little weird with Cleveland making it a close game against Green Bay (24-22). The game announcers and some analysts afterward made Dallas sound like a super powerhouse in their win (56-14) though Washington was hampered by playing on a short week and having several players out due to COVID. One Washington defensive player took a swing at a teammate so things weren't great among the players who could play.

This week is a little weird because there was no Thursday game. The games are on Sunday except for the Monday nighter.
 
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quote:
Originally posted by catskilleagle:
The game announcers and some analysts afterward made Dallas sound like a super powerhouse in their win (56-14) though Washington was hampered by playing on a short week and having several players out due to COVID.


Dallas is no powerhouse. They take too many penalties at the wrong times and Dak runs hot and cold. Bills made it to the playoffs today, not sure how long they last. Going to watch the Pack now. Can't see how they lose tonight, but anything is possible.

Well, the Jets and Giants winning any game does seem almost impossible, so there is that. Big Grin The Giants have become such an embarrassment, they don't look like they even belong on a pro field at this point. They both keep making the same mistakes in draft choices and good players will not take trades to bad teams. So next year looks like this year, that looks like the last 15 years.

The Bucs will be hurt by losing Antonio Brown for the run, even if he was only able to act as a decoy, but you can't say he doesn't know how to make an exit. Sad situation really. He got so many chances because of his talent, but to have such a public fit, there is something more than attitude going on. Brady kept vouching for him and this is his payback. Their chances of a repeat have dropped.
 
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Yeah, what Dallas and Arizona showed was that the game could go either way if they play each other in the playoffs. I don't think either has a chance against Green Bay but maybe against Tampa Bay with its injuries. It looks like the Rams have the best chance in the NFC against the Packers though the 49ers are an interesting team. So far they have beaten only weak teams and lost to a fading and out-of-the-playoffs Seahawks team but they could get lucky at least once if they reach the playoffs.

Arians defended Antonio Brown and took heat for it. Tom Brady went out of his way to welcome him to the Patriots and the Bucs but Brown couldn't control himself. I remember when he was on his way out at Pittsburgh, sitting by himself on a bench wearing a fur coat. Walking off the field mid-game taking off his uniform piece by piece was the next level. I hope he gets help.



quote:
Originally posted by Raven:
quote:
Originally posted by catskilleagle:
The game announcers and some analysts afterward made Dallas sound like a super powerhouse in their win (56-14) though Washington was hampered by playing on a short week and having several players out due to COVID.


Dallas is no powerhouse. They take too many penalties at the wrong times and Dak runs hot and cold. Bills made it to the playoffs today, not sure how long they last. Going to watch the Pack now. Can't see how they lose tonight, but anything is possible.

Well, the Jets and Giants winning any game does seem almost impossible, so there is that. Big Grin The Giants have become such an embarrassment, they don't look like they even belong on a pro field at this point. They both keep making the same mistakes in draft choices and good players will not take trades to bad teams. So next year looks like this year, that looks like the last 15 years.

The Bucs will be hurt by losing Antonio Brown for the run, even if he was only able to act as a decoy, but you can't say he doesn't know how to make an exit. Sad situation really. He got so many chances because of his talent, but to have such a public fit, there is something more than attitude going on. Brady kept vouching for him and this is his payback. Their chances of a repeat have dropped.
 
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STEELERS!
 
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Wot no Dolphins?? Mad

oh and don't mention Colt Power. Big Grin

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Yesterday's games were insane and more than a little frustrating trying to find the end. Between Steelers/Ravens, 49er's/Rams and Raiders/Chargers I got exhausted. Strangely enough, all of my picks won. Wild cards may be another story. I'll put down my picks, no points considered.

BUCS over Eagles
CARDINALS over Rams
BENGALS over Raiders
49ER'S over Cowboys
PATRIOTS over Bills
CHIEFS over Steelers

Now some of those picks go against wisdom, but I have hunches. Bills, Cowboys and Rams could easily win, but I don't like the way their teams or QBs have played under stress and in some cases they have seemed reckless. So I have no confidence in them. I think the Raiders are going to have a hard time getting up the energy to go another game like the last one.

BUCs should be a lock over the Eagles, as should be the CHIEFS over the Steelers. They are better teams, however I will say this.

Steelers are my favorite and I would like them to win, but the Chiefs should blow them out. If Mahomes goes iffy again and the Chiefs get cocky, don't put the game away early and allow the Steelers to hang around into the fourth, the Steelers have a good chance of beating them and I hope that's what happens.
 
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I flipped back and forth between the Packers-Lions and Steelers-Ravens game, mostly watching the latter. The Packers are a well-oiled machine but they can be pushed around. You can run on them. The Steelers always play tough

How'd you like that decision Staley made on 4th and 2 at the Chargers own 18 yard-line. Hey, the analytics say to go for it. I go by the old-coach-alytics. In that situation is that what Shula-Landry-Noll-Belichick would do? No, let's punt and play good defense instead and maybe the other team will gamble on a high-risk/low reward situation and we'll be the ones with at least an easy field goal try. Don't give up points in a close game.

I was looking at last year's numbers and this year's. There were 10 overtime games last year and 21 this year. It was tougher for me to pick games though I was better at picking against the spread than last year (admittedly just over 50% - might as well flipped a coin or let an octopus do it for me). I was better the last three weeks of the season.

Yeah, the Eagles played tough but it's another level beating even an injured Bucs team. Last year, they had hardly any injuries going into the playoffs while the Chiefs couldn't have their starting offensive tackles for the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay by 9.

Stafford is a little bit of a Bret Favre. He just throws it sometimes. Murray has trouble seeing over the line but he can scoot and he has a big arm. I haven't seen the line yet but it's probably Arizona by a field goal or less. I think the Rams are a little beat-up after just playing the 49ers. Arizona by 2.

I think the Bengals should outgun the Raiders but don't give Carr the ball last if the score is close. Bengals by 7.

I agree the 49ers should beat the Cowboys. Both have been good against weak teams. The Cowboys play the Giants twice every year and they beat a COVID-ravaged Washington team the week before. That's three easy wins right there. I hear the analysts talk about the Cowboys talent but are they tougher than the 49ers? No. 49ers by 4.

I think the Bills will beat the Patriots even if the weather is bad. Bills by 8.

The Chiefs needed a defensive touchdown to beat the Broncos and they got it when the Broncos were in scoring position. They are better than the Steelers but then the Steelers weren't supposed to be there. It seems to me that could be an upset but I'll say Chiefs by 3.

Here are the lines just before kickoff of the first game:

Bengals -6 points (for those who don't follow the betting world, that means the Bengals are picked to win by 6 points)

Bills -4 1/2
Bucs -8 1/2
Cowboys -3
Chiefs -12 1/2
Cardinals -4





quote:
Originally posted by Raven:
Yesterday's games were insane and more than a little frustrating trying to find the end. Between Steelers/Ravens, 49er's/Rams and Raiders/Chargers I got exhausted. Strangely enough, all of my picks won. Wild cards may be another story. I'll put down my picks, no points considered.

BUCS over Eagles
CARDINALS over Rams
BENGALS over Raiders
49ER'S over Cowboys
PATRIOTS over Bills
CHIEFS over Steelers

Now some of those picks go against wisdom, but I have hunches. Bills, Cowboys and Rams could easily win, but I don't like the way their teams or QBs have played under stress and in some cases they have seemed reckless. So I have no confidence in them. I think the Raiders are going to have a hard time getting up the energy to go another game like the last one.

BUCs should be a lock over the Eagles, as should be the CHIEFS over the Steelers. They are better teams, however I will say this.

Steelers are my favorite and I would like them to win, but the Chiefs should blow them out. If Mahomes goes iffy again and the Chiefs get cocky, don't put the game away early and allow the Steelers to hang around into the fourth, the Steelers have a good chance of beating them and I hope that's what happens.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: catskilleagle,
 
Posts: 3458 | Location: San Jose, CA, USA | Registered: December 23, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by catskilleagle:
How'd you like that decision Staley made on 4th and 2 at the Chargers own 18 yard-line. Hey, the analytics say to go for it. I go by the old-coach-alytics. In that situation is that what Shula-Landry-Noll-Belichick would do? No, let's punt and play good defense instead and maybe the other team will gamble on a high-risk/low reward situation and we'll be the ones with at least an easy field goal try. Don't give up points in a close game.

I think the Bills will beat the Patriots even if the weather is bad. Bills by 8.

Jess,

Why did he call a Time Out with 38 seconds left in OT, when it looked like it might be a tie and both teams would have made the playoff and knocked out the Steelers? Even the announcers were stumped.

I think the Raiders would still have gone for the field goal win because a tie would have meant they play the Chiefs, but it gave them more time to come up with a play to get closer. No, you should always take easy points and don't give up easy points if you are smart. Lots of big games this year went down to the wire in the 4th only because the Head Coach threw away points in the 1st and 2nd.

The Bills should be in a better position than the Patriots, I just don't trust Joss Allen. He is younger yet, but he reminds me of the potential that a Carson Wentz or Matthew Stafford always show. Then they either do something stupid or the team itself does. They just don't quite have enough to last as a winner. Other QBs seem to pull it out, even if it's just by luck. Big Grin

Stafford of course is still going, this time for the Rams. I didn't pick them to win either. Wink
 
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I'm still stunned that the Dolphins fired Brian Flores. We swept the Patriots for the first time in years and won 7 of the last 8 games. Apparently, management didn't get along with Flores. Hey, we were winning again with an average/above average quarterback and the defense is a lot better. Get along. He's going to get a job elsewhere and we're going to have a hard time getting a coach as good. It looks like management is actually the problem.
 
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The Giants are considering Flores for Head Coach now, God help him. Big Grin

I think the 49ers/Cowboy game showed everything wrong with football in those last 10 minutes, that played more like 40 minutes. The 49ers blew it and Garoppolo personally blew with the dumb, late interception he threw. If the Cowboys had any discipline they would have easily won, but no. They have to give away penalties like they did all season long.

Then you had the farce of remeasuring every half inch of field by instant replay. And Dak pulls the bone headed mistake of not even getting off a Hail Mary because he's running to the center with seconds left to play. Then Dak wants to blame the Refs when he doesn't know the rules, stupid as they may be. The 49ers should enjoy it, they won't make it out of next week.

Steelers and Patriots couldn't even compete. Surprised about Patriots, not surprised at Steelers. I don't think I'm going to care to watch the Steelers next season, seems like an ending for me. One thing that cannot be denied. No football team comes down to one man, but Belichick needed Brady more than Brady needed Belichick. Wink

Tampa and Brady cruised. Chiefs cruised, but were hardly tested. Everyone with be a Bills fan next week, except me. Bengals/Raiders was entertaining, and I thought it might be another OT until last interception. Bengals got lucky.

Tonight might be a great game because neither Rams nor Cardinals seem that much better than each other, assuming both teams actually show up I mean. Look for Stafford to throw a stupid interception or get bad luck and have one bounce off a receiver for an inception. If he does he loses, if he doesn't he wins. I would guess he does. Big Grin
 
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And I'm wrong. Big Grin Miserable game. Oh well, next week.
 
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Yeah, with all the bonehead penalties the Cowboys committed, they still had a chance to win at the end. I understood running the ball but it has been virtually set in stone that you need 16 seconds to get another snap off - not 14 seconds. If you want a second or two left for one more play, go ahead and run but then hit the ground and hand the ball to a referee as quickly as possible so he can set it. Don't try to set the ball yourself and then snap it because a play can't go without an official setting the ball where the play was marked down. The way it ended Dallas didn't try one pass into the end zone.

That was pathetic that Dak tried to blame the refs. That was McCarthy and he not managing the clock correctly at the end of the game. It just showed that Dallas got in the playoffs only because it's in the worst division in the league. Dallas is a good team but it lost in the playoffs to a wild card, a team that didn't win its division.

Tonight, the Cardinals looked terrible. Murray tried to avoid a safety by throwing the ball up for grabs resulting in a defensive touchdown. They would've lost anyway but it showed Murray wasn't playoff-ready.
 
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quote:
Originally posted by catskilleagle:
Tonight, the Cardinals looked terrible. Murray tried to avoid a safety by throwing the ball up for grabs resulting in a defensive touchdown. They would've lost anyway but it showed Murray wasn't playoff-ready.


Yeah, I felt sorry for the little fella, but he really came up short. Wink I used to be a fan of Doug Flutie in his day. It's even harder now to see over the line and when they get blitzed they had better be runners.

So next week draws up kind of easy, if you just go by the reputations, but any upset would be big.

TITANS over Bengals
PACKERS over 49'ers
BUCCANEERS over Rams
CHIEFS over Bills

A lot of people are going to take the Bills because they look hot now and Chiefs have had quirky games. They're both coming off easy wins, but Chiefs at home with the experience still have the advantage to me.
 
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Yeah, I remember Doug Flutie. In one of his last games he was allowed to do a drop kick, something he was known for in practice (like Sonny Jurgensen's behind-the-back pass) and never seen elsewhere in this century.
 
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Wow, two major upsets today. The Bengals beat the Titans and the 49ers beat the Packers - both games decided with a late field goal. I didn't think the Bengals were going to do it with Burrow holding the ball too long at times. He got sacked on 3rd down and almost put his team out of field goal range one time but the kicker saved the drive with a 54-yarder. Another time, Burrow did lose enough yardage to force them to punt. He and his team kept fighting, though - an incredible win.

The Packers scored a touchdown on their first drive but never got another one. They kept the 49ers offense out of the end zone but the game changing play was a blocked punt that the 49ers ran in for a touchdown. Both teams moved the ball at times but they'd get shut down. The cold seemed to get to the Packers more than the visiting team. It was a weird game.
 
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Both games were weird and very disappointing. They just showed the lie to everyone talking about dominant teams. Neither the Titans nor the Packers were ever truly dominant because they had holes in their offense, defense, or in the case of the Packers, special team play. Also yesterday, all of the quarterbacks played poorly, even the ones on winning teams.

I don't know what happened to Rodgers. The Pack started like it was going to be a blowout and then made 3 points the rest of the game. So many 3 and outs, I don't know what the play calling was supposed to be. The defenses looked good because the offenses were pitiful. Jimmy G. panics and throws the ball anywhere when pressed. The 49ers were barely good enough to take a game they were being handed.

And Burrow and the Bengals are a legend in their own minds. Did you notice that the Titans passed up an extra point for a failed 2-point conversion in the first quarter when the score became 6 to 6. If they had that one point lead in the last two minutes of the game, would they have chosen different plays and not turned the ball over trying to get into field goal range?

Yeah, I think so. So that was another terrible example of Head Coaches leaving points on the board for points they don't get and going on 4th down when the team isn't even close to making it on fourth down. Stupid, stupid, stupid. Mad

If the Bucs and Chiefs, or maybe even the Bills, win today, they are going to have a free pass into the Super Bowl over the Bengals and 49ers.
 
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The Chiefs/Bills game will not be topped. The Super Bowl is an anti-climax. The head-to-head action between Mahomes and Allen was the best sustained quarterback scoring that I can remember seeing. Yes, both defenses were running out of steam, but the throws were terrific. Mahomes I knew could do it. Allen was a surprise. His runs kept them in it too. It's a shame he didn't get another chance to reply to Mahomes again, but when KC won the toss, I knew they would get that touchdown.

In the 4 games played this weekend, the Chiefs were the only winner who actually won it. In the other 3 games, the "better" team lost it and the winner just was there. They got field goals in the last minute to win, when they didn't deserve the opportunity, but they got it.

Even with the Bucs/Rams, which saw Brady storming back from 27 to 3 to tie, and then a terrific ending for the Rams, the Bucs lost it themselves. They spotted the Rams the whole first half and more. They let them get too far ahead with bad play calling and two stupid penalties, one by Brady himself. The Rams reverted to form at the end and lost the ball at bad times, but Stafford only needed to make the final throw for field goal position. He did it.

Rumors are starting that Brady will retire. If so, he went out looking good. But he needed to start sooner.

Now three winners, who really didn't win, will be headed for the Championships round. Does anyone think the Chiefs won't be Super Bowl Champs? They won it three weeks early. Big Grin
 
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